FXUS64 KMEG 232142
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
342 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...

A STRENGTHENING LOW OVER TEXAS WILL TRACK TO THE ARKLATEX REGION
TONIGHT...NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY THURSDAY
EVENING...AND TO IOWA BY CHRISTMAS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE WINDY CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE MIDSOUTH. STRONG
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE NEAR THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A WIND GUST GREATER THAN 50 MPH ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHERE THE BEST MIXING WILL OCCUR. THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
HANDLED BY A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INHIBIT MAJOR FLOOD PROBLEMS EXCEPT FOR
SOME ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING AT LOW SPOTS. SEVERE WEATHER FROM
PURE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR CWA DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

THE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER IOWA THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY BEFORE
TRACKING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
WRAPPING IN COLD AIR AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK PROVING SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER WEATHER. THE NEXT
SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE.

THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.  HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM 
PREVIOUS 12Z CYCLE...EXCEPT BELIEVE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY IS 
GREATER MAINLY AFTER 08Z...MORE SPECIFICALLY FROM 14Z-18Z
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER FORCING CLOSES IN ON
OUR AREA.

 BELLES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  52  57  34  42 / 100 100  50  10 
MKL  50  58  35  40 /  90 100  60  10 
JBR  50  53  33  39 / 100 100  40  10 
TUP  51  62  37  44 /  60 100  60  10 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR 
     CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING 
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR 
     DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING 
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR 
     ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING 
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
     UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR 
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING 
     FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$