FXUS63 KIND 022056
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
215 PM EST WED DEC 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...ENERGETIC UPPER AIR PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE GULF
COAST STATES EXPECTED TO EJECT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...UPPER ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY SHEAR OUT ACROSS
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THE MAIN DETAILS. FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS MAINLY ON POPS AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM.
FOR TONIGHT...MODEL DATA BACKED UP WITH PRESSURE TRENDS...
SATELLITE...AND RADAR ALL SUGGEST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO
TAKE A TRACK NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF A LOUISVILLE-CINCINNATI LINE
THIS EVENING. FAIRLY STRONG LIFT PROGGED WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE
THIS EVENING...SO WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS ALL AREAS. LIFT WEAKENS
QUITE A BIT AFTER 030600Z AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO OHIO...SO
PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT.
THICKNESSES SUGGEST AIR MASS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AFTER ABOUT 030800Z TO SUPPORT A MIX OR A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW...BUT BY THAT TIME MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT LIFT WILL BE
GONE...SO IF ANY SNOW DOES OCCUR...FLURRIES WOULD BE ABOUT IT.
IN THE LATER PERIODS...IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S SYSTEM...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LINGER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THE SHEARING OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...THINK THERE WILL
BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT DON/T SEE ANYTHING IN THE MODEL DATA TO
SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THREAT. WILL LEAVE THE LATER
PERIODS DRY.
BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...DON/T HAVE ANY MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH
THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE LOWS BY FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES TO COOL...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD COVER LINGERS.
&&
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 02/18Z TAFS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS AND RAIN CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING AT BOTH
KBMG AND KHUF SINCE MID MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITHIN THE
HOUR AT KIND AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT KLAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST...BUT ANTICIPATE DETERIORATING
CEILINGS INTO MVFR CATEGORY AS HEAVIER RAINFALL MOVES IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. KBMG WILL BE IMPACTED INITIALLY BY 19-20Z WITH KIND AND
KHUF ALSO DROPPING INTO MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS BY 20-21Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KLAF UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.
FURTHER DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BY EARLY
EVENING WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. MAY SEE VISIBILITIES ALSO DIP BELOW 3SM FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING AS WELL WITHIN HEAVIER RAIN. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO
A STEADY 15KTS DURING THE EVENING WITH APPROACH OF THE LOW.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF ALL OF THE
TERMINALS AFTER 06Z AS THE LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN OHIO. A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN AS IT ENDS LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL
NOT HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...AND THIS SHOULD
PROMOTE A RISING OF THE STRATUS DECK BACK UP INTO LOW MVFR CATEGORY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING LOW
STRATUS DECK WILL HOWEVER PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
NO IMPACT TO AIRPORTS IS EXPECTED.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JAS
AVIATION...RYAN
