FXUS62 KMFL 071302
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
802 AM EST MON DEC 7 2009
.UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR/EAST
COAST...SO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A CLOUDY START.
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...SOME SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
WEST PALM BEACH METROPOLITAN AREA EXTENDING INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM EST MON DEC 7 2009/
AVIATION...PATCHES OF IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS AS SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD, SFC WIND WILL VEER TO THE
WESTERLY DIRECTION REMAINING AT SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10KT WITH SEA
BREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH COASTS. DRAINAGE FLOW WILL ONCE
AGAIN FORM LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMING
OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS AND ADVECTING TO BOTH COASTS. HOWEVER, HAVE
NOT INCLUDED IN THE 12Z TAFS WITH THE TIMING OF ANY SUCH EVENT
WILL BE AFT 08Z TONIGHT.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM EST MON DEC 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...A MESOSCALE LOW ATTACHED TO THE FRONT HAS BEEN
MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE FRONT. AT 07Z, THE LOW WAS
LOCATED NEAR BOCA RATON. THE LOW AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE NORTH OF
THE AREA BY MID MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN FORECASTED TO
MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY, NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY PASS
THROUGH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTH
AGAIN FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN THEN WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 30 PERCENT POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THUNDER IS STILL MENTIONED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
UNTIL THURSDAY, EXPECT VERY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN (ONLY 10 PERCENT
AT BEST). THE MODELS DO BRING A FRONT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND IT
IS REALLY TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA.
CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE:
CITIES FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS
MIAMI 86 86 - 1997
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 89 - 1919
WEST PALM BEACH 85 87 - 1948
NAPLES 84 88 - 1982
MIAMI BEACH 84 85 - 1942
CLEWISTON 86 87 - 1978
IMMOKALEE 87 87 - 1986
DEVILS GARDEN 87 86 - 1986
SO WILL STILL MENTION NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE ZONES
SECTION FOR MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
MARINE...THE MESOSCALE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL
MOVE NORTH WITH THE FRONT. THE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL BE EAST AT 15 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTHWEST. ALL OTHER MARINE AREAS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST TODAY.
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS, WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY,
SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST AGAIN FRIDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH TEMPORARILY FOR
THE LAKE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 4 FEET OR LESS WITH A
2 TO 4 FOOT SWELL THROUGH TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS HERE AS HUMIDITIES WILL BE ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 82 67 84 73 / 20 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 70 83 74 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 83 69 84 74 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 80 65 83 70 / 10 - 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
