FXUS64 KMEG 292029
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
229 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.DISCUSSION...
INCLEMENT WEEK AHEAD FOR THE MIDSOUTH AS H5 CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS
SLOWLY ACROSS TEXAS...THEN LIFTS OUT AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF
THE PFJ DIGS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TONIGHT COLD FRONT ELONGATED FROM SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
PARALLEL. ALL MODELS HINTING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWEST. SO
KEPT POPS IN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 18Z...THEN JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE EASTERN THIRD AFTER 18Z. MONDAY EVENING CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OVER THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. FELT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR PATCHY FOG TUESDAY MORNING AS
CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVER THE REGION. THE REST OF TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS TEXAS LOW
APPROACHES. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ON SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST GULF AND TRACKING NORTHEAST. GFS TAKES
THE TRACK THE FURTHEST EAST ACROSS ALABAMA...THEN ALONG THE
BACKBONE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...THEN SHUNTS IT QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO LINE IT UP WITH
THE GFS IN WEST VIRGINIA BY THURSDAY. THE NAM SOLUTION BASICALLY SPLITS
THE TWO TRACKS. CHOSE MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION BASED ON PAST TRENDS.
THIS WILL MEAN MORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE MIDSOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONE ITEM IN WHICH THE MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ABOUT IS THE ARCTIC AIR DIVING SOUTH BEHIND THE STORM.
H850 TEMPS LIKELY TO DROP FROM ZERO TO -8 FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ECMWF LINGERS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE H5 TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...THEREFORE RAIN MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NOON ON THURSDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL
NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY AS TO ANY CHANGES TO THE POTENTIAL OF A
WINTRY WEATHER MIX THURSDAY MORNING.
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE DRY AND COLD...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT WARM UP EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR OR IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS KMEM...KMKL AND KJBR WITH
OCNL PRE FRONTAL -RA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT KTUP AFT 20Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU ALL TAF SITES BTWN 06Z-11Z WITH IFR CIGS AND
MVFR/IFR VSBYS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AFT FROPA WITH
IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS.
OKULSKI
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 46 52 38 61 / 100 50 0 10
MKL 43 50 32 59 / 100 50 0 10
JBR 42 51 32 57 / 100 30 0 10
TUP 48 53 35 59 / 100 70 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
