FXUS64 KBMX 160530
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1130 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AS TEMPERATURE AND 
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 
EARLIER TODAY.  CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE LEFT WITH SOME DECENT 
COVERAGE OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS IN THE POSTFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.  THAT 
MAY KEEP TEMPS UP JUST A TAD AS THE BATTLE BETWEEN RADIATIONAL 
COOLING AND ADVECTION COOLING BEGINS TO WAGE ACROSS THE AREA.  SO 
FAR...THE ADVECTION COOLING IS TAKING HOLD...SO HAVE DROPPED TEMPS 
JUST A FEW DEGREES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL 
LIKELY BEGIN TO CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...LEAVING US WITH A 
COOL NORTH WIND AND MUCH COLDER AFTERNOON TEMPS.  UPDATES ARE OUT.  

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IF CLOUDS COULD BREAK 
APART OR ERODE THEN CONDITIONS WOULD NOT BE AS PESSIMISTIC 
OVERNIGHT. WELL OVER THE PAST FEW THAT TREND HAS CONTINUED. MODELS 
STILL ARE HAVING A HARD TIME CLEARING OUT THE HIGH STUFF THIS 
AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT ON THE LACK OF LOW 
LEVEL CLOUDS...AT LEAST FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. ESPECIALLY WITH 
DEWPOINTS QUICKLY DROPPING OFF INTO THE LOW 30S IN NORTHERN AND 
CENTRAL ALABAMA. 

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...CONFIDENCE A LITTLE LOW ON CLOUD MOVEMENT OR 
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH...MGM AND TOI. WENT WITH PRIMARY VFR 
CONDITIONS WITH JUST A TEMPO OF MVFR IN FROM 10 TO 14Z. THE LOWEST 
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE...IF THEY DEVELOP...NEAR TOI. 

THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE 
AFTERNOON...WITH A MORE SCATTERED DECK AROUND 6000 FEET AS THE MAIN 
SYSTEM ROTATES OUT OF THE AREA. AFTER 00Z...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY 
DIMINISH. 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$