FXUS65 KABQ 300013
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
513 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2009
.UPDATE...
WILL ALLOW WINTER STORM SEGMENTS FOR NRN NEW MEXICO TO EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE. IN ADDITION...WILL DELAY THE FIRST PERIOD WATCH SO THAT
IT WILL START AT 00Z/TUE TO REFLECT THE ONSET OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. DPORTER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2009...
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MESSY AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WANDERS OVER THE UPPER GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SLOWLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PRECIPITATION HAS
PRETTY MUCH SHUT DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND ONLY A
FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THUS...THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TROUGH TUESDAY. IMPRESSIVE
BATCH OF PRECIP JUST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY
EVIDENT ON RADAR WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW LEVELS
HOVERING AROUND 6-7000 FEET. THIS BATCH WILL TRANSITION NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE DEFORMATION ZONE BEFORE BECOMING INGESTED CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR POPS STRETCH FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE SACRAMENTO AND CAPITAN
MOUNTAINS. DYNAMIC AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS TONIGHT...AND LOW END ADVISORY
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE IN THE SAN FRANCISCO RIVER
VALLEY...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY.
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE GILA...SACRAMENTO...AND CAPITAN
MOUNTAIN AREAS WHERE SNOW IS ALREADY SLOWLY ACCUMULATING.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN JOGGING SOUTHWARD FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE EAST DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL PLACE IT OVER THE MEXICAN MAINLAND WITH
THE NULL DEFORMATION ZONE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE ABQ CWA...AND
CONSEQUENTLY PRECIP WILL BE FAVORING THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING WILL
CHANGE MANY MID SLOPE AND VALLEY AREAS BACK OVER TO RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCLUDE AREAS WITHIN THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY...BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO THE HIGHLIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL COMING INTO THOSE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE FINALLY SWUNG SOUTH OF THE
LAND OF ENCHANTMENT...AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE READY TO MAKE
ANOTHER CYCLE TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE FEATURE. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN SPREADING GENEROUS AMOUNTS OF QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE STATE...AND AGAIN SUFFICIENT COOLING SHOULD BE PRESENT
OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN MANY
AREAS...PARTICULARLY THE MOUNTAINS WITHIN THE POSTED WARNING. AS
OF RIGHT NOW...AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT EASTERN LINCOLN AND CHAVES
COUNTIES WOULD BE UPGRADED FROM A WATCH TO A WARNING...AND DE
BACA/CURRY/ROOSEVELT WOULD ONLY BE GIVEN AN ADVISORY. WILL LET A
COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS COME IN BEFORE WE PULL THE TRIGGER JUST
YET.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS...BUT COOL NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS TO BE THE THEME TO FINISH OUT THE WORK
WEEK.
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.AVIATION...
THE COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO IS LEADING TO A PLETHORA OF AVIATION
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW AND
ASSOCIATED IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSITIONED FROM THE GILA REGION
EASTWARD INTO THE SACRAMENTO MTS. KSRR WILL BE THE HARDEST HIT THRU
12Z WITH VLIFR VSBYS BELOW 1/4SM...CIGS NEAR 002...AND PERIODS OF
+SN. THERE ARE MANY LOCALES ACROSS THE AREA THAT HAVE NOT RECEIVED
MUCH PRECIP BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PRODUCING MVFR CIGS TO 010 WITH
PERIODIC VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO 1-3SM. LOWEST CONFIDENCE SITE IS KROW
AS RAIN/SNOW FARTHER WEST ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
LITTLE LUCK. LEFT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TAF AFTER 01Z ALONG WITH CHANCE
OF SNOW AS BNDRY LAYER COOLS AND PRECIP STARTS REACHING THE GROUND.
BESIDES THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM THE GILA INTO THE SE PLAINS...
SKIES WILL TREND TOWARDS MORE BREAKS BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. GUYER
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT BENEATH LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP WERE NEAR
100PCT ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA. LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP HAVE
ALLOWED MIN RH VALUES TO STAY ABOVE 50PCT IN VALLEY LOCALES/PLAINS
AND ABOVE 80PCT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP LINGER OVER THE AREA.
THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE AREA WILL CRAWL EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN OLD
MEXICO...ALLOWING FOR CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. MIXING WILL BE WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD THUS EXPECT FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION OVER A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE STATE.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS A NNW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS 10-15F BELOW NORMAL
SLOWLY MODERATING TO 0 TO 5F BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY. VENTILATION
WILL CONTINUE IN THE FAIR TO POOR RANGE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY BETTER WINDS IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT.
GUYER
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ509.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ526.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ520-524-525.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ536>540.
&&
$$
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