FXUS65 KFGZ 252228
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
325 PM MST FRI DEC 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND DRY NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY A FEW DEGREES COLDER 
THAN TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES ALONG THE KAIBAB 
PLATEAU...GRAND CANYON...AND AREAS SURROUNDING FLAGSTAFF SUNDAY 
MORNING. MORE SIGNIFICANT UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY 
EVENING...THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT 
COLD AND DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY 
SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE 
STATE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
DISTURBANCE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ANYWHERE FROM FLAGSTAFF 
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE KAIBAB PLATEAU. BY MONDAY...MODELS ARE 
INDICATING A BROAD TROUGH...WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE 
FEATURES...NEARING THE SOUTHWEST. THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT AT THIS 
POINT AS TO THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WHICH 
RESULTS IN CLEARLY DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION SCENARIOS. WE WILL 
CONTINUE TO WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THIS MONDAY THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY PERIOD BEFORE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 
FORECAST.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE DRY. TEMPERATURES 
SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL 
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES FOR THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. AVIATION 
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........LATTO
AVIATION.......DL

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.