FXUS61 KGYX 060734
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
234 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
REDEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WILL DROP THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SW MAINE
ZONE WITH THE 3 AM ZONE FCST...BUT WILL CONT OVER OUR ERN MOST
ZONES THRU 7 AM. THIS IS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND METAR
AND OTHER SFC REPORTS. LOW PRES WILL RACE TO THE NE THIS MORNING
...QUICKLY REACHING THE MARITIMES. THIS SHOULD BRING A QUICK END
TO THE SNOW. CLEARING TO FOLLOW...MAINLY OVER DOWNSLOPE AREAS...
WHILE THE GUSTY NW WINDS KEEP CLOUDS AND A CHC OF -SHSN OVER THE
MT ZONES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. GENERALLY USED GFS40 AND A BLEND OF
MAV AND MET MOS FOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED UP TO 7 1/2 INCHES FROM THIS EVENT.
SEVERAL PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS /AWIPS IDENTIFIER
PWMPNSGYX/ HAVE BEEN ISSUED...THE MOST RECENT AT 219 AM...WITH
DETAILED SNOWFALL INFORMATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W TNGT WITH FAIR WX. CLEARING
CONTINUES THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE IN ADVANCE OF UPR
LVL SHORT WAVE/JET SEGMENT AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVE IN FROM THE W. NW
WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH BUILDS IN AND WINDS
DECOUPLE. GENERALLY USED GFS40 AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET MOS FOR
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EVOLVING PATTERN RESULTS IN A DEEP TROUGH VICINITY OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A CLOSED LOW SITUATED JUST WEST OF
HUDSON BAY. THE RESULTING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
ARCTIC AIR TO SEEP SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST AND PLAINS AND
GIVE RISE TO A MAJOR DISTURBANCE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA BY MID WEEK WITH A TRACK AND SUBSEQUENT COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT THAT FAVORS A WINTRY MIX...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO RAIN
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
OTHERWISE...COLD AND RATHER QUIET THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY OTHER
SYSTEM OF NOTE A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME...
LOWEST OVER MORE ERN AREAS WITH SNOW CONTINUING AND IMPROVING OVER
MORE WRN AREAS AS THE SNOW HAS ENDED...SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THRU
THE COURSE OF THE MORNING HOURS AND REMAIN VFR TNGT. GUSTY NW
WINDS TDA...SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET AS HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE W AND WINDS DECOUPLE.
LONG TERM...MVFR POSSIBLE LATE MON AND MON NIGHT IN SNOW SHOWERS.
IFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SNOW...WITH A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...WINDS STILL GUSTING AROUND 40
KTS AT THE IOSN3 BUOY AND SHOULD CONT TO SEE FREQUENT GALE FORCE
GUSTS THRU 10 AM OVER THE OUT WATERS WITH SCA WINDS CONTINUING
OVER THE BAYS. THUS WILL KEEP THE GLW FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND SCA
FOR THE BAYS UP THRU THE PREVIOUS EXPIRATION TIME OF 10 AM. THE
NEXT SHIFT WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO PUT UP AN SCA FOR THE OUTER
WATERS FOR TDA (AFTER 10 AM) AND EXTEND THE SCA THRU TDA FOR THE
BAYS.
LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ021-
022-025>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ151-
153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
