FXUS61 KILN 091816
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
116 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY...PUSHING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE LOW WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY WELL EXITED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THAT.
STILL APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. BUT
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER VISIBILITY IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITEWATER AND MIAMI VALLEYS. WINDS
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND THEY SHOULD BE APPROACHING
THEIR MAXIMUM SPEEDS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE THIS
EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE FROM SRN QUEBEC TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THURSDAY...SO WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. IT WILL BE
MUCH COLDER AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT WARM THAT MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER
20S. WILL FORECAST HIGHS FROM AROUND 20 NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 20S
FAR SE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM SW
TO NE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
SUNSHINE AND MODERATING 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM
UP FROM THURSDAYS VERY COLD READINGS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.

UPR LVL PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE FLOW WILL ALSO HAVE EMBEDDED WEATHER
DISTURBANCES. ONE MAY AFFECT OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE THUS KEPT A MENTION OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT
WX SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION IS POISED FOR NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS BY
MID WEEK. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW CHC POP ON TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG GUSTY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE ALTHOUGH REMAIN GUSTY WELL
INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH GUSTS BACK AROUND 30 KT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR VISIBILITY THAT WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR
AT TIMES. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES TOWARDS 00Z. SOME
TEMPORARY LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING FROM KDAY TO KCMH. CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR FOR ALL SITES
BY EVENING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
LIFT TO VFR THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
AVIATION...