FXUS65 KLKN 270945
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
145 AM PST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE MILD DAY ON TAP TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO MOVE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA BY SUNSET TODAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT...BRINGING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS SOUTH. &&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS
THICKENING OVER WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS
MOVING ONSHORE OREGON/CALIFORNIA ATTM. SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON LATEST RUNS. HOWEVER ONE CAVEAT IS THAT
THE POSITION OF THE LOW TO AFFECT THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT
36 HRS WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH PER NAM MODEL. THE GFS WAS THE
OUTLIER YESTERDAY AND POSITIONED NEAR THE CURRENT NAM POSITION.
NOW THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH A MORE NORTHERN TRACK. THE NAM MODEL
SHOWS ONLY A 125 MILE DIFFERENCE IN POSITION NEAR THE TIP OF
SOUTHERN NEVADA BUT THIS DIFFERENCE COULD INFLUENCE LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY
LATE TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE
HOWEVER CONCERN IS FOR DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP OVER WESTERN
NEVADA. THINK POPS SHOULD BE ENHANCED TONIGHT OVER HUMBOLDT AND
LANDER COUNTIES THUS WILL WORK ON THAT AREA SPECIFICALLY. FIGURE
THE MOUNTAINS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF THE
WHITE STUFF. WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA BUT NOTHING
STANDS OUT AS SIGNIFICANT OTHER THAN A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW FOR
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. THINK SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER SATURDAY AS A 100KT JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CWA. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 40
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT 
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND 
SEASONABLE TEMPS. RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY AS A 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH 
WILL BARELY CLIP NE NV TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...SO CHANCE OF ANY 
PRECIP IS SLIM TO NONE. HAVE LIMITED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE 
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. IF ANYTHING THIS SHORTWAVE WILL 
BRING DOWN SOME COOLER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS NORTHERLY 
FLOW INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS A 
SOLUTION DIFFERENT FROM THE OTHER MODELS/ENSEMBLES BY THE MIDDLE AND 
END OF NEXT WEEK. IT BRINGS A STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM 
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THEN SHOWS A FAIRLY 
STRONG STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. HAVING A 
HARD TIME BELIEVING THIS SOLUTION ATTM...SO WILL GO WITH MAJORITY 
AND KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW. 
&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY 
THEN WILL MOVE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST IMPACT 
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER WESTERN NV...WHERE SOME RAIN MAY 
AFFECT KWMC THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z SAT 
BUT CIGS/VSBYS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VFR. ELSEWHERE SOME MIDDLE AND 
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS WILL REMAIN 
RELATIVELY LIGHT.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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