FXUS63 KEAX 021141
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
541 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO RACE THROUGH MISSOURI AND WAS NOW ENTERING
THE SERN CWA. THE COOLER AIR LAGGED BEHIND IN NEBRASKA AND IOWA.
OTHERWISE...MOIST IMAGERY DEPICTS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CNTRL TX
MOVING EAST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ALOFT STRETCHED FM
SERN KS TO THE SWRN KC METRO. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND
OF WEAK TO MODERATE H7-H5 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THIS BAND MAY
PROVIDE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AS THE BAND
SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST. THE FORCING GRADUALLY DIMINISHES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWFA. 

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A COLD VORTEX WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND DROP INTO THE UPR MISS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR WILL PROGRESS THROUGH MISSOURI AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS SE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE MOISTURE
CIRCULATING AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW THIS FAR
SOUTH...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES ACR NRN MO ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD STRATOCU DECK WRAPS CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW.

DB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY ISSUE OF NOT WILL BE THE STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT THE STRENGTH TO INCREASE AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OCCURS AROUND
MID MORNING...WITH WINDS TO CALM SOME AS THE SUN SETS.

CUTTER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$