FXUS62 KFFC 251016 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
515 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK AND OCCLUDING FRONT STRETCHING FROM A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL EASE THROUGH THE STATE INCONSPICUOUSLY TODAY. SREF
HINTS AT A LITTLE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IN
EXTREME NRN GA...SO WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHC OF SPRINKLES UP
THERE. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND
GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS MORNING...BUT THAT WILL DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON. LARGE...MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO
GA BEHIND THE FRONT...SO TEMPS WILL COOL BUT NOT DRAMATICALLY.
VERY FEW DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEAR TERM. ALL PROG
A MAJOR 500 MB LOW TO TREK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW AND
THEN SWING THE BASE OF ITS TROF ACROSS GA BY FRIDAY MORNING. ECMWF
IS A BIT DEEPER AND FASTER THAN NAM AND GFS...BRINGING A SINGLE 500
MB TROF ACROSS THE STATE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND NAM SEEM TO
PREFER A DOUBLE TROF PASSAGE...PUSHING A QUICK TROF THRU NRN GA
THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN TROF FRIDAY MORNING. WILL GO
WITH THE NAM/GFS SOLUTION AND WILL NOT STRAY MUCH FROM GUIDANCE
TEMPS AND POPS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT A BRIEF FLURRY OR TWO IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE
TOO DRY FOR THAT...ALTHO THICKNESSES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF IT. MAY NEED
TO WATCH MOISTURE FIELDS TO SEE IF ANYTHING CAN BE SQUEEZED OUT.
FOR NOW...THOUGH...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. IMPRESSIVE
NOR'EASTER DEVELOPS AS UPPER TROF DEVELOPS AN OFFSHORE LOW AND LIFTS
IT INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLE AS LARGE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS DEVELOPS A STOUT LOW ACROSS THE GULF
COAST...THEN LIFTS AND DEEPENS IT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WEDGE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL GA. THIS IS A
POTENTIAL COOL SEASON SEVERE PATTERN FOR US BUT THE GFS IS DECIDEDLY
DIFFERENT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE COUSINS. THEY LIFT THE LOW QUICKLY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND BOMB IT OUT...KEEPING GA DRY. EMWCF AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THIS GFS/EMWCF/CANADIAN SOLUTION AND KEEP HIGHER POPS IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STILL A LONG WAY OUT...BUT NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SEVERE THREAT FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IF THESE
SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THESE EXTENDED PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS CONFINED TO MCN AND AHN AT THIS TIME. ATL AREA
SITES HAD DROPPED TO IFR/LIFR EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 035-050 HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE SITES AND
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. CLEAR SKIES ARE ENTERING NORTHWEST
GEORGIA CURRENTLY AND AS THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT CLEARING TREND TO
CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT ATL AREA TAF SITES TO REMAIN
VFR...OR ONLY BRIEFLY GO MVFR THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH AHN AND
MCN MVFR/VFR BY 16/20Z. CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 12-14Z...BUT REMAIN 3 KTS OR LESS...INCREASING TO
5 KTS AND SHIFTING WEST AFTER 18Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 62 41 61 34 59 / 5 0 0 5 5
ATLANTA 62 42 57 35 57 / 5 0 0 5 5
BLAIRSVILLE 59 38 53 31 51 / 5 0 0 10 5
CARTERSVILLE 62 37 56 34 55 / 5 0 0 5 5
COLUMBUS 66 42 62 36 60 / 0 0 0 5 5
GAINESVILLE 61 42 59 35 54 / 0 0 0 5 5
MACON 68 39 60 35 62 / 10 0 0 5 5
ROME 64 38 56 35 57 / 5 0 0 5 5
PEACHTREE CITY 64 36 57 30 58 / 5 0 0 5 5
VIDALIA 66 40 65 35 61 / 30 0 0 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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