FXUS62 KMFL 270533
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1233 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A DRY AND
STABLE AIR MASS ENTERS THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 8 TO 12 KNOT
RANGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 PM EST THU NOV 26 2009/
UPDATE...A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO POUR INTO
SOUTH FL BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT OFF THE SE FL COAST.
WINDS ARE A TAD HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE...SO HAVE INCREASED THE
WINDS BY A BIT. WIND SENSORS ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE ARE SHOWING NW
WINDS NOW AT AROUND 20 KT...SO HAVE EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE AND THE GULF WATERS. UPDATES OUT. HAPPY
THANKSGIVING! /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM EST THU NOV 26 2009/
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW
STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT STILL PERSISTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN S. FL TERMINALS...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. AFTER O6Z DRY
AND STABLE AIR MASS FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION AND SHOULD CLEAR
ANY LINGERING LOW STRATUS CEILINGS. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NW IN 8 TO
12 KNOT RANGE ALL TERMINALS.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EST THU NOV 26 2009/
DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT AT 19Z APPEARS TO BE ROUGHLY ALONG A
HANDLE BEACH TO CENTRAL MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD
MAKE IT SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.
GRADUALLY CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
MID EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM TEXAS INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY. WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO AND THEN MODIFICATION BEGINS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOMES STALLED AND A LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG IT LATER TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY. THE ATTENDANT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE STAYED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW STARTING TUESDAY WILL INCREASING MOISTURE.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THE
FRONT BUT WILL NOT CHANGE ONGING FCST ATTM.
MARINE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO AT OR
ABOVE 20 KNOTS FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY LATER
TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST, THE WINDS RELAX
A BIT BELOW SCA CRITERIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST AT LIGHT SPEEDS SUNDAY, SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY AND
THEN SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT A
SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 10 AM TO
6 PM ON SATURDAY FOR ALL AREAS. A WARNING FOR FRIDAY WILL BE
NEEDED TONIGHT. A WATCH MOST LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AREAS SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, THE LOWEST RH WILL BE 45
PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 69 46 73 58 / - - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 51 73 62 / - - - -
MIAMI 71 52 74 62 / - - - -
NAPLES 68 47 72 55 / - - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-
FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ075-FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-
FLZ174.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ630-
AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-
GMZ657-GMZ676.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...59/RM
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD
