FXUS61 KCLE 111542
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1042 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WILL MOVE TO WEST VIRGINIA BY
SATURDAY AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH GOOD LAKE EFFECT BANDS AND PLENTY OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CRAWFORD COUNTY
WILL ALSO GET SOME HEAVY SNOW. GEAUGA COUNTY WILL GET SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO...MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION...ADDED 1 TO 3 INCHES
NORTHERN GEAUGA COUNTY. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT PARTLY SUNNY
AWAY FROM THE HEADLINES. HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECASTED LOOKED GOOD
MAINLY MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A BIT OF A WARMING TREND IS SETTING UP FOR THE SHORT TERM AS THE
SURFACE HIGH NOW IN THE TN VALLEY MOVES TO OUR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
RETURNING NORTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE AREA BY/JUST BEFORE
12Z SUNDAY. WILL NEED TO BRING CHANCE POPS TO THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMING THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH
WILL BE TOUCHY AS TO IF WE ARE ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THE RAIN MOVES
IN. WILL NEED TO ALLOW FOR EITHER RAIN OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE
START OF PRECIP HOWEVER AFTER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL RISE
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL GO WITH HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AND THEN
SHUT OFF PRECIP AFTER SUNDAY EVENING AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP. MODELS SUGGEST ARCTIC AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THIS WILL ONCE
AGAIN SET UP THE LAKE SNOW MACHINE IN ACTION FOR A FEW DAYS AGAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LAKE
EFFECT WILL SHIFT TO THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT AREAS OF NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY.
DUE TO THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...MODELS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
SUGGESTED. SO WILL BE BUMPING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES EACH
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEGA BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FINALLY PUSHING ON SHORE THIS
MORNING. ERIE HAD CEILINGS BELOW 500 FEET AND VISIBILITIES A HALF
A MILE OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. BAND SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH
OF ERIE AIRPORT IN NEXT HOUR AND CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT.
EXPECTING BAND TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH OCCASIONAL BURSTS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AIRPORT. THEN
BAND SHIFTS BACK NORTH AROUND 10Z TONIGHT PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE DAY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS
BUT THEN DIMINISH AFTER 23Z THIS EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS
FINALLY START TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. WAVES WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS WELL BUT WILL LIKELY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
GOING INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM. COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EAST SOME TIME ON TUESDAY MORNING AND WINDS START TO PICK UP AGAIN.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO HOIST GALES AGAIN SOME TIME TUESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ012-
014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ061-142>149-
162>169.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
143-162-163.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
