FXUS63 KFGF 150321 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
921 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

.UPDATE...
COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. COMPACT AND STRONG 500 MB
SHORTWAVE IN ERN ND ATTM. AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOC WITH SHORT WAVE NOW
OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA. CLEARING OCCURRS ON BACKEDGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND THIS CLEARING WILL PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTHEAST THRU
THE FCST AREA THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE SOUTHEAST THE LAST TO
CLEAR OUT TOWARD MORNING. THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF CLEARING WILL
BE CRITICAL TO LOW TEMPS. ATTM UPSREAM TEMPS INDICATE THAT 20 TO
25 BELOW IS STILL VERY REASONABLE IN THE DVL BASIN WITH TEENS
BELOW ELSEWHERE. INTERESTING IS THE WIND SPEED. SEEING A 2-3 HOUR
PERIOD OF WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS RIGHT NEAR SHORT
WAVE AND JUST BEHIND IT IN SUBSIDENCE ZONE AS WINDS MIX UP TO 800
MB FOR A TIME WHERE WINDS ARE 30-35 KTS.  WILL UP WIND SPEEDS IN
GRIDDS FOR A BIT FOR THIS. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN CLOSER TO 10-15
KTS BY SUNRISE. THESE WINDS AND TEMPS PUT WIND CHILLS TO BELOW
MINUS 40 IN MUCH OF ERN ND AND FAR NW MN LATER TONIGHT/TUES AM SO
WARNING LOOKS GOOD.   

BASED ON RADAR RETURNS IN SE ND AND WEBCAMS AND OBS WILL MENTION
FLURRIES FOR SE ND INTO WCNTRL MN AS SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH.  

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ONCE AGAIN...THEN WHETHER ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL WITH
THE TWO WEAK IMPULSES THAN MOVE ACROSS THE FA TUE NIGHT AND WED
NIGHT. PREFER THE NAM TODAY AND WILL FOLLOW FOR THESE TWO WEAK
PCPN EVENTS.

TONIGHT...CLEARING LINE HAS MADE IT INTO EASTERN ND AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ARE MOVING
INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME FLURRIES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW REPORTED AT TIMES UNDER THIS BAND OF CLOUDS. NOT SURE
THEY WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST AND WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF
FLURRIES OUT FOR TONIGHT. THINK AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS WILL
MAKE IT THRU THE FA LATER...BUT IT SHOULD CLEAR OFF BY MORNING.
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS LOOKS TO STAY OVER WESTERN ND BY 12Z
TUE. TO ITS EAST THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO KEEP SFC
WINDS IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE ALL NIGHT. WITH MORNING LOWS
EXPECTED TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT. WILL START OFF WITH A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY UP TOWARD KBJI AND A WIND CHILL
WARNING FOR BARNES COUNTY ND UP TOWARD KROX...WHICH INCLUDES THE
KDVL REGION AND THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

TUE-THU...NOT SURE HOW MUCH WARMING WILL OCCUR ON TUE RIGHT UNDER
THE SFC RIDGE. WINDS LOOK TO STAY UNDER 10 MPH WITH SUNSHINE.
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FA WITH PINE TREES MAY BE ABLE TO WARM
MORE THAN THOSE WITH MORE SNOW COVER. HAVE VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE
IN TEMP FORECAST BEYOND TUE. FIRST IMPULSE COMES THRU TUE NIGHT
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...BUT LAST TO
THE EASTERN FA. TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
HUGE IN THE TEMP FORECAST. SHOULD SEE SOME SUN AGAIN ON WED BEFORE
THE SECOND IMPULSE ARRIVES WED NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN HOW FAST THIS
MOVES THRU WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON TEMPS. TRIED NOT TO DEVIATE
TOO FAR FROM CONTINUITY FOR NOW. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SNOW
POTENTIAL WITH EITHER OF THE TWO SYSTEMS...PROBABLY A DUSTING OR
SLIGHTLY MORE AND MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2.

LONG TERM [FRI-MON]...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE 
AREA AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE W U.S. AND A SURFACE LOW 
RETROGRADES IN E CANADA. HOWEVER...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WAVES 
THROUGH THE FLOW WILL MAKE TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES DIFFICULT. AT THIS 
TIME...THE FRI HAS THE BEST CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR A CHC 
OF -SN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...KEPT THE 
REST OF THE FORECAST DRY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

AVIATION...
VFR SKY AND VSBY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A 
BRIEF PERIOD OF -SN WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE YET BEFORE 00Z 
FOR KTVF AND KBJI. WINDS TO BACK SLIGHTLY FROM NW TO W AND REMAIN 
AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-
     053.

     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ002-003-006-
     009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-
     008.

&&

$$
RIDDLE/GODON