FXUS63 KLMK 110508
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1208 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
...FORECAST UPDATE...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN
THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME CIRRUS TOWARD MORNING...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE RIGHT ON TRACK FOR THE FORECAST
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS TONIGHT. FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED THIS EVENING.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
REMAINING STRATO-CU AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE CWA...AND SUNSHINE AND GUSTY WEST WINDS REMAIN IN ITS WAKE.
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WERE ONLY
ABLE TO REACH THE MID AND UPPER 20S. WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS...WIND
CHILL READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL APPROACH AND
OUR WINDS WILL START TO WANE AND BACK A LITTLE TOWARD SUNRISE. IT
WILL BE A COLD NIGHT...BUT AN UPPER JET AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING AS LOW AS THEY
COULD. THINK MET/MAV MOS IS GENERALLY TOO HIGH THOUGH SO WILL BLEND
RAW MODEL TEMPS WITH ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE AND GO FOR LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS WEST TO THE MID TEENS EAST. LOW TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS OF THE BLUEGRASS.
DECENT SWRLY FLOW AND WARM-AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A NICE
DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. OTHER THAN THE MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY...THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NE TO AROUND 40 SW. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SW AT 5-10MPH.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES. A SOUTHERN STREAM SFC LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF STATES
SAT/SUN KICKING UP MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE
BEST TIME FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE SAT NIGHT AND HAVE UPPED POPS IN THIS
TIME RANGE. HAVE TWEAKED PRECIP TIMING A BIT STARTING WITH 20 POPS
IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA) EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING...MAXING AT 50 POPS SAT NIGHT...THEN DECLINING POPS EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ENDING BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
30S-LOWER 40S FOR SATURDAY AND MID 40S FOR SUNDAY FOR HIGHS. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER 30S SAT NIGHT...AND
UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT/S LOWS WILL BE
REACHED NEAR MIDNIGHT. WARM ADVECTION WILL START THEREAFTER CAUSING
TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO SUNRISE.
MONDAY - THURSDAY...
HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES FOR THE MON/TUES SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST
MATCHES MODEL GUIDANCE WELL FOR RAIN STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S.
THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS BEHIND THIS WEATHER SYSTEM AS
MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY INCONSISTENT AS TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL
ENTER THE CONUS. 12Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BOTH TRENDED COOLER WITH
RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN CONUS.
THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED TEMPS WED-THURS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS LAST
PART OF THE FORECAST AS TEMPS MAY NEED TRENDED DOWN FURTHER.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS KENTUCKY THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW-SCT CIRRUS AT AROUND 20 KFT. LIGHT WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNSET. VSBYS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH NO RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........EES
SHORT TERM.....AL
LONG TERM......AML
AVIATION.......LMS
