FXUS62 KILM 291130
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
630 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL AREA WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO COULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SHALLOW SURFACE BASED INVERSION TO BREAK
AROUND 9-10 AM. ANY 30 DEGREE READINGS BY THAT TIME SHOULD BREAK
INTO THE 40S TO THE 50S BY 10 AM. ANY LEFTOVER FROST WILL BE JUST A
MEMORY IF 1 IS UP IN TIME TO OBSERVE IT. DYNAMICS FROM A MID TO
MAINLY UPPER LEVEL S/W TROF MOVING FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE AREA HAS
RESULTED IN CIRRUS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL ALTOCUMULUS
REMAINS POSSIBLE VIA MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS BY MID-DAY. MODELS
INDICATE THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PULL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COULD GET
FANCY WITH TODAYS SKY CONDITIONS WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND THE
OVERALL THINNESS AND OPAQUENESS OF THE CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER FOR THE
MOST PART WILL JUST CALL IT...PARTLY CLOUDY. FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER AND SOMEWHAT AMPLIFYING TROF PER VARYING
DEGREES AT THIS STAGE BY THE MODELS...MOISTURE DOES ENCROACH THE ILM
CWA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. WILL NOT ADVERTISE
THE CLOUDINESS UNTIL THE SHORT TERM WHICH MEANS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
ON TAP WITH ONLY SCT/BKN CI POSSIBLE. FOR TEMPS WILL STAY CLOSER TO
EITHER THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE OR STRAIGHT UP FROM THE NAM MODEL
ITSELF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. IN THE LATEST RUNS...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
WEAKER IN DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THIS...THERE
EXISTS ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER.
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RIDES OVER THE RIDGE AND RESULTS IN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AM.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES SHOULD
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY TO THE
NORTH. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THIS
TAF VALID PERIOD.
THROUGH 00Z...LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND CLOUD FREE.
WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE...MID-LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS
AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS 15-16Z. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD PASS AROUND 00Z ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME
SCATTERED. AS THE SURFACE INVERSION INITIALLY SETS UP THIS EVENING
WINDS SHOULD BECOME VERY LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR CALM. COULD BE SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG FORM WHERE WINDS BECOME CALM. CRE WOULD SEEM THE
MOST VULNERABLE TO THIS OCCURRENCE ATTM DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE TERMINAL AS A RESULT OF
ONSHORE WINDS EARLIER IN THE DAY. BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT ATTM AND
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXPECT
SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SPEEDS OF 15-25
KNOTS DEVELOPING SHOULD PROVIDE HOSTILE CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION
AFTER 06Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO IFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO SLIDE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ILM COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE NEAR TERM. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS GENERALLY BACKING FROM WEST
TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH TODAY AND HOLDING AT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. NEAR
SHORE...A PERIOD OF SOUTH WINDS COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A
WEAK SEA BREEZE. SPEEDS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 15 KT. FOR
TONIGHT...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT FROM THE
MAINLAND...SW WINDS ARE MODELED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT...TO
OCCASIONALLY 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WAVEWATCH3 SEAS A BIT UNDERDONE
TO COMMENCE THE FORECAST COMPARED WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
THE WATERS. AS A RESULT...SEAS AROUND 2 FT SHOULD RULE TODAY...AND
BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUNRISE MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SW WINDS
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT. THIS LIKELY 1 OF THOSE INSTANCES WHERE SWAN
SEAS DATA IS MUCH MORE USEFUL IN COMPARISON TO REALITY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SW FLOW AT 15 TO 20 KT IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MONDAY
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME NW AS THE FRONT PASSES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT AT THE PEAK OF
THE EVENT BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LIGHT
N TO NE WINDS ARE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS SEAS
DIMINISH TO 2 TO 3 FEET BEFORE BEGINNING TO BUILD AGAIN LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A ROUGH DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. SHIFTING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS
BUILDING ABOVE 6 FEET. AFTER THE LOW PASSES...DIMINISHING W TO NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH FALLING SEAS SUCH THAT WINDS WILL BE 15 KT
OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 4 FEET OR LESS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAN
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RAN
AVIATION...MRR
