FXUS65 KABQ 281039
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
339 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WINTRY WEATHER TO RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS
RAISES SOME CONCERN SINCE MODELS WERE BRINGING THE LOW FARTHER
WEST...DOWN THE COASTLINE...RATHER THAN ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
PRIOR TO THIS MORNING. THOUGH MODELS THIS MORNING SEEM TO HAVE
LATCHED ON TO THIS. THE LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO DIVE INTO NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA BEFORE TURNING EAST AND MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO.
STILL APPEARS THAT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH MAY BE LATER RATHER THAN EARLIER...SINCE
DEWPOINTS ARE SLOW TO RISE THIS MORNING...EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL
ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT UNDER
LARGE SCALE UPPER LIFT. MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
ACROSS WESTERN NM AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AND THEREFORE HAVE RAISED POPS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
REMAINS ON AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY THINKING THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
MAY JUST EXCEED WARNING MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...SINCE AMOUNTS APPEAR
TO BE MARGINAL FOR A WARNING ATTM...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM
WATCH AND LET DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE LAST LOOK. IT IS PROBABLE THAT
OTHER AREAS MAY NEED ADVISORIES...BUT WILL NOT SPECULATE AT THIS
TIME...SINCE THE AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL COOLING REMAINS IN QUESTION
AND LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY BE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
ON SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DETERIORATES
FURTHER. SNOW SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. STRONG UPSLOPE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE THE OTHER FAVORED
AREA FOR SNOW. BY LATE IN THE DAY BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE
MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF QPF...SINCE MUCH OF THE LIFT FROM THE FRONT WILL
HAVE WANED AS THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. THE PRECIP SHOULD THEN REPOSITION ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ECMWF AND NOW THE
LATEST 06Z GFS DONT TAKE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AS FAR SOUTH.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...MORE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FOR AN
EXTENDED AMOUNT OF TIME AND BOTH POPS AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
NEED TO BE RAISED. THE SW AND SC MTNS MAY NEED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME.
OPERATIONAL GFS STILL APPEARS TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS IN THE EXTENDED. THUS...LARGELY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ONCE
AGAIN IN FAVOR OF THE ENSEMBLES AND EURO.
34
&&
.AVIATION...BROAD SWATH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS ARIZONA MOVING
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF UPPER
LOW SINKING INTO CENTRAL/SOCAL. PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE FROM THE
ARIZONA BORDER TO THE CONTDVD AFT 18Z WITH SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
POSSIBLE...BUT MORE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
AFT 29/00Z. SURFACE LOW SW KS AT 10Z TO SAG INTO EAST CENTRAL NM BY
29/00Z. MVFR CIGS/VSBY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF OVER NE/E CENTRAL NM
UNTIL 29/06Z BUT NORTH WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE AFT
28/21Z. AS THE FRONT IN THE PLAINS BACKS WESTWARD...GUSTY EAST WINDS
MAY DEVELOP INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY 29/06Z.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...BROAD SWATCH OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ARIZONA
MOVING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPPER LOW SINKING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT FROM THE ARIZONA BORDER TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY AFTERNOON...BUT COLD AIR LACKING THIS FAR EAST
OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. HUMIDITIES OVERALL WILL INCREASE TODAY OVER
FRIDAY/S AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA COUPLED WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS SHOULD SAG INTO
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE TODAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS MAY DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.
GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN THE PLAINS.
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD LOWER LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR
SPREADS INTO FROM THE WEST AND NORTH...HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS FORECAST TO TRACK WELL TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...SO ITS
EFFECTS MAY BE MORE LIMITED TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...WHERE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF SNOW COULD FALL OVER THE GILA AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MODELS
INDICATE THE UPPER LOW COULD BE SLOW TO EJECT...AND MAY LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY.
VENTILATION WILL RANGE FROM GENERALLY GOOD TODAY TO MOSTLY POOR TO
FAIR BY MONDAY DUE TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS AND LESS WIND.
EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUED TO BE
UNSETTLED WITH A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 52 32 45 25 / 30 70 40 10
DULCE........................... 53 27 44 16 / 30 80 40 10
CUBA............................ 53 27 41 16 / 30 80 50 10
GALLUP.......................... 51 27 43 20 / 40 80 40 20
EL MORRO........................ 52 26 41 19 / 40 80 40 30
GRANTS.......................... 55 27 42 20 / 30 80 40 20
QUEMADO......................... 56 25 44 19 / 40 70 50 40
GLENWOOD........................ 60 34 50 31 / 40 60 40 50
CHAMA........................... 50 21 40 8 / 30 80 50 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 26 40 18 / 10 80 50 20
PECOS........................... 55 26 40 18 / 5 60 50 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 51 20 40 8 / 10 60 60 10
RED RIVER....................... 46 19 33 6 / 10 60 60 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 47 18 34 8 / 10 60 60 20
TAOS............................ 51 23 40 14 / 10 60 50 10
ESPANOLA........................ 57 31 43 22 / 10 70 50 10
SANTA FE........................ 53 27 41 20 / 10 70 50 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 30 43 23 / 10 70 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 56 35 44 26 / 10 70 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 37 45 29 / 10 70 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 35 46 26 / 10 70 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 57 37 45 28 / 10 70 50 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 60 32 47 25 / 10 70 40 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 57 36 46 28 / 10 70 50 20
SOCORRO......................... 62 36 48 29 / 20 50 40 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 52 28 41 20 / 10 70 50 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 27 43 19 / 5 70 50 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 53 25 36 21 / 0 60 50 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 31 43 24 / 5 60 50 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 34 44 29 / 5 50 50 50
RUIDOSO......................... 56 31 41 23 / 5 50 50 60
CAPULIN......................... 54 21 36 14 / 0 30 50 10
RATON........................... 58 24 37 16 / 5 40 50 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 58 25 35 18 / 5 50 50 20
CLAYTON......................... 63 26 39 24 / 0 20 40 10
ROY............................. 60 27 39 24 / 0 40 40 10
CONCHAS......................... 69 32 42 25 / 0 40 40 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 68 32 42 25 / 5 50 40 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 32 41 24 / 0 30 40 10
CLOVIS.......................... 70 33 43 24 / 0 30 40 20
PORTALES........................ 70 34 44 25 / 0 30 40 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 70 32 43 25 / 0 50 40 20
ROSWELL......................... 71 39 48 30 / 0 30 40 40
PICACHO......................... 68 37 47 28 / 0 40 40 40
ELK............................. 64 33 43 26 / 5 40 50 60
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>516.
&&
$$
34/99
