FXUS65 KLKN 150104
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
504 PM PST MON DEC 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT...TUESDAY...AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN ELKO AND
HUMBOLDT COUNTIES...AND NORTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES...TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
IN NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
&&

.UPDATE...FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SET IN AT KTPH EARLY THIS
EVENING. FOG IS ALSO STARTING TO FORM AROUND KEKO. THIS IS ALL DUE
TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SNOW MELT EARLIER TODAY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE INSERTED FREEZING FOG INTO MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 1/4 MILE. NO
OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 352 PM / 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT-TERM MODELS AGREE ON
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT DUE TO OVERRUNNING...LOWERING ON
TUESDAY. WITH A LOW CLOUD DECK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND GOOD VV'S...THERE IS WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN HUMBOLD...ELKO...NORTHERN
LANDER...AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTIES BETWEEN NOON AND
MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS A BIT LATER IN ELKO. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500
FEET...MAYBE 6000 FEET FAR NORTH...TRANSITIONING TO ALL LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT. QPF WILL BE LOW....MAYBE A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THE
WHOLE EVENT...SO SNOWFALL IN VALLEYS WILL BE A DUSTING. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...FROM WILD HORSE TO
JARBIDGE TO JACKPOT...WHERE LOWER 700MB TEMPS AND HIGHER QPF OF UP
TO 0.30 INCHES COULD RESULT IN 3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE POSSIBILITY
THEREFORE EXISTS FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO THE FCST AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. REA

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT KEEPING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE LKN CWA
MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY....THE OPERATIONAL GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES BRING AN
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE REGION WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIP
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
ARE MORE IN FAVOR OF KEEPING A RIDGE OF THE REGION FOR DRY
WEATHER. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS...MADE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO START NEXT WEEK AND KEPT THINGS DRY FOR
NOW. &&

AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WILL ALLOW 
FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE FREEZING FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. FOG
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SET IN AT KTPH THIS EVENING AND IS
ENCROACHING ON KEKO. EXPECTING...CIGS/VSBYS AT KEKO...KTPH...AND
KWMC TO DROP TO LIFR OR VLIFR BETWEEN 01Z-04Z THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL LIFT BETWEEN 16Z-18Z TUESDAY MORNING IN THESE LOCATIONS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR KELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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