FXUS61 KCAR 080540
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1240 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY TONIGHT TO WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY EARLY
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO
NORTHERN AREAS WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AND BRISK WINDS TO
SOUTHERN AREAS. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY
WITH A BRISK WESTERLY FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: MINI-NORLUN STRUCTURE SETTING UP MID-COAST...LATEST RUC
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE. HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMTS FOR
ISLANDS AROUND PENOBSCOT BAY WITHIN OUR CWA TO AS MUCH AS 2 TO 3
INCHES IN A NARROW BAND SOUTH OF MDI BY 12Z. ALSO ADDED FLURRIES
TO FKT REGION.

UPDATED THE GRIDS/ZFP MAINLY FOR THE COAST AS SNOW HAS BEGUN TO
SET UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. ADJUSTED THE POPS USING THE RUC AND SREF AND THEN
MANUALLY ADJUSTED TO FIT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS FCST OF
UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE COAST LOOKS GOOD ATTM.

UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS WELL TO REFERENCE THE
WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MORE OF THIS IS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.

ONLY REAL ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRES FCST TO TRACK RATHER RAPIDLY SE FROM NW NEW ENGLAND ERLY
THIS EVE TO A POSN S OF THE WRN COAST OF NS BY 06Z TNGT... THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRIGGERING SOME LGT SNOW FROM NRN VT AND NH
ESEWRD ACROSS SWRN MAINE... SOME OF THIS LGT SNOW XPCTD TO OVRSPRD
OUR SWRN AND SRN AREAS THIS EVE THEN MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY OFF THE
COAST LATER THIS EVE. WILL INCRS POPS TO LOW LIKELY THIS EVE FOR A
FEW HRS W/ POPS RAPIDLY DCRSG TO NIL BY LATE EVE ACROSS THIS AREA.
ANY SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 1 INCH...

OTHRWS...BENIGN CONDS XPCTD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THRU TUE AS HGH PRES REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW PRES SYSTEM...

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL MOVE TO THE EAST. PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTH OF NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE IN DAY THURSDAY SETTING UP A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING WELL TO THE EAST
OF THE REGION EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR DAMMING TO PERSIST
INTERIOR AND NORTH. EVENTUALLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN AT ALL LEVELS
AND EXPECT MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY.

ALSO VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE AND
DEPARTING HIGH. BUFKIT SUGGEST GOOD MIXING IN COASTAL ZONES AS
WARMER IN MOVES IN SO WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE USE THE NAM12 FOR WINDS
HOWEVER WILL MANUALLY INCREASE WIND SPEED IN COASTAL ZONES WHERE
BUFKIT SHOWING BEST MIXING.

TIDES WEDNESDAY AROUND 11 FEET WHICH IS BELOW HIGHEST TIDES OF THE
MONTH. WITH LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING NOT
AS BIG AN ISSUE BUT EVEN WITH NEAP TIDE COULD BE PROBLEMS FOR
EXPOSED COASTLINE IF OFFSHORE WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACH 20 FEET...SO
WILL ALSO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD ACROSS THE N THRU TUE W/ A PERIOD OF MVFR IN LGT
SNOW THIS EVE ACROSS THE SRN TAF SITES...

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THEN IFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
SOUTH. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:  WNDS/SEAS XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO SCA THRU TUE...

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF NAM12 AND GFS40 TO INITIALIZE
WIND GRIDS. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS. FOR WAVES: WNA INDICATES VERY STRONG FETCH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTH OF WARM FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS
UP TO 18 FEET INDICATED ACROSS WATERS WITH THIS FETCH. WAVE MODEL
WIND SPEEDS IN THIS FETCH...UP TO 50 KNOTS...MAY BE TOO STRONG BUT
WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER RUNS BEFORE ADJUSTING THIS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE 
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR 
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/KHW/MWALKER
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/KHW/MWALKER
MARINE...HEWITT/KHW/MWALKER/MIGNONE