FXUS61 KBOX 031256
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
756 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR WEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING. SEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY THREATEN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SHOULD APPROACH FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPGRADED THE WIND ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR RHODE ISLAND
AND EASTERN MASS FOR THIS MORNING. STARTING TO GET REPORTS OF DAMAGE
AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 KNOTS. AT LEAST LOCALIZED DAMAGE
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 15 OR 16Z IN RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASS.
IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT
MAY BRING ISOLATED HIGH WINDS AND DAMAGE TO OTHER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL.
FM 346 AM DISCUSSION BELOW..
STRONG PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE ERIE AS OF
07Z...WITH PERHAPS A WEAKER SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW LOCATED NEAR
DCA. STRONG WARM SECTOR LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO AID IN THE
PRODUCTION OF BATCHES OF HEAVY SHOWERS STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM NJ
INTO SNE. THE HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SNE
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT RAPIDLY SHUT OFF FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z AS A DRYSLOT QUICKLY ADVECTS IN FROM THE SW. HAVE CAT POPS
PRIOR TO 14Z...BUT RAPIDLY GO DRY BY LATE MORNING. SOME MORNING RUSH
HOUR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
AS FAR AS WINDS GO...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST PORTION
OF THE LLJ WILL BE DISPLACED A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED EARLY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...WE ARE NOT TOTALLY SURE
THAT PORTIONS OF SNE WILL SEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...MAINLY THE
INTERIOR. WE THINK THE MAIN WIND ISSUES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...IE...RI AND SE MASS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...COLD FRONT CROSSES REGION MID MORNING AND SHOULD ALLOW THE
LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO POP OUT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF 40 KT
GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WE ARE GOING TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING
FOR ALL ZONES. ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...HIGHER-END WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...SO A HIGH
WIND WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
FOR SIGNS OF DAMAGING WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS MORNING TO
THE NW OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING AREA...MAINLY RI AND INTERIOR SE
MASS. IF SIGNS POINT TO MORE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL THEN WE COULD
ISSUE A SHORT-FUSED HIGH WIND WARNING THERE.
AS FAR AS THUNDER GOES...WE DON/T SEE TOO MUCH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
UPSTREAM...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME STRIKES FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS
EASTERN PA AND NJ. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. IF THUNDER OCCURS IT
MAY HELP TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE SFC. WE ARE WATCHING QUICKLY-
MOVING ARC OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WE THINK THE BULK OF THIS WILL MOVE UP
THROUGH UPSTATE NY AND PERHAPS NORTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE/S
A LOW PROB THAT A PORTION OF THE LINE COULD CATCH THE AREA AROUND 12Z
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGH WIND GUSTS /IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER/.
OTHERWISE...THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT RATHER QUICKLY MID MORNING ONWARD
AS THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH MAXES PROBABLY IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
DIMINISHING WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...DRY AND NICE WITH PLENTY OF SS AND STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AS SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...21Z/2 AND 03Z/3 SREF PROBS WERE BECOMING
OMINOUS FOR SIGNIFICANT PCPN AS WELL AS THE AT LEAST A SHORT TERM
TREND OF GEFS...UK/GGEM TO BECOME WETTER WITH A CLOSER PASSAGE OF THE
NEWD MOVING INTENSIFYING COASTAL SFC LOW. 06Z GFS CONTS DRY EXCEPT
FAR SE.
CONFIDENCE ON THE EVENT IS BELOW AVG.
FOR QPF USED A BLEND 12Z/3 HPC AND 03Z/3 SREF.
FOR POPS USED 3Z/3 SREF TRIMMED ALONG THE NW EDGE OF THE FA AND CUT
BACK SOONER SUNDAY MORNING. THESE POPS WERE IN LINE WITH THE 0Z/3
GEFS.
WINDS/TEMPS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF 00Z/3 NAM/GFS MOS.
SKY IS A 50 30 20 BLEND OF 00Z/3 GFS MOS...RGEM SKY AND NAM RH ALG.
"IF" SIGNIFICANT QPF WORKS NWD INTO SNE AS NOW OUTLOOKED BY THE SREF...BL
TEMPS COULD PREVENT MUCH SNOWFALL OR ACCUMULATION ALONG THE COAST.
HOWEVER... BEING THAT THE BULK SHOULD OCCUR AT NIGHT...A CRUSTY
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.
MUCH REMAINS TO BE DETERMINED INCLUDING THE EFFECT OF STILL RELATIVELY
WARM BL TEMPS IN THE I95 CORRIDOR.
FOR NOW WE HAVE .15 TO .70 QPF IN SNE FM NW TO SE WITH BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE
ON SIZABLE QPF AS NOW OUTLOOKED.
SNOW FALL FOR NOW IS OUTLOOKED 0.5 T0 1.5 INCHES WITH A RAIN MIX AND
MELTING AT THE START. AGAIN...HOW FAR NW AND HOW MUCH QPF LEAVE SNOW
AND ASSOCIATED RESULTS A BELOW AVG FCST ATTM.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. UPPER FLOW
TURNS ZONAL...SO TEMPS SHOULD BE SEASONABLY COOL.
WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAMER...THE 3RD IN A ROW /TODAYS ...SAT NIGHT AND
NEXT WED/ .. SHOULD BE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NE USA. TRACK
UNCERTAINTY. ATTM POPS RAISED TO 50 PCT TO GIVE MORE VISIBILITY TO AN
EVENT. GFS BL TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE AND OR SNOW AT THE START
OVER THE NW AND ECMWF IS RATHER COLD THRU MOST OF THE EVENT OVER A
SLIGHTLY LARGER PORTION OF OUR FA.
GUSTS FRI-MIDDAY MONDAY ARE NAM MXG HTS AND GUST ALG THRU 12Z SUN AND
GFS MXG HTS AND GUST ALG THEREAFTER WITH GUSTS THROUGHOUT BLENDED
WITH THE 4PM WED KBOX FCST.
GUSTS BEYOND MONDAY ARE GFS MOS BLENDED WITH THE 4PM WED FCST GUSTS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOW SHIFTED EAST FROM RI INTO SOUTHEASTERN MA AS OF
1245Z. STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THROUGH 1330Z FROM LOGAN SOUTHWARD TO
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. THEREAFTER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER ALONG
WITH LLWS EASING. HOWEVER SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 40 KT
THROUGH 20Z OR SO.
AT 1245Z LINE OF LOW TOP SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN MA AND CT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WIND SHIFT LINE WHERE WINDS GO FROM SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. THIS WIND SHIFT LINE/FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
EAST ACROSS THE REGION /SEE TAFS FOR TIMING/. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME ALONG WITH CIGS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY
FROM MVFR TO VFR.
FOR TONIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR
RAIN...ESPECIALLY COAST BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. KACK APPEARS HIGH PROB FOR RAIN. ELSEWHERE
LESSER CONFIDENCE. NLY GUSTS 25-35 KT POSSIBLE CC AND THE ISLANDS
SAT NIGHT.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...GALES WARNINGS REMAIN HOISTED AS STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOUTHERLY GALES WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE TO GUST 40-45 KT THROUGH MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD AND BECOME QUITE ROUGH. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO DO SO.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...BUT LINGER ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN OUTER WATERS.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AND KEEP THE HEAVIEST WEATHER WELL OFFSHORE.
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY ENOUGH TO SPREAD SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST WATERS. LOW PROB GALE E AND S OF CC
AND ACK.
SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE.
MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG SOUTH WIND EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A STORM
SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.0 FT ALONG THE OUTER SOUTH COAST...AROUND 2 FEET IN
BUZZARDS BAY...AND 2 TO 3 FT IN THE UPPER PART OF NARRAGANSETT BAY
FOR THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. ALONG THE OUTER SOUTH COAST OF RHODE
ISLAND...ANTICIPATE 10 TO 14 FT SEAS A SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE. THIS
LOOKS TO PRODUCE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI
COASTLINE AND THE BRISTOL COUNTY MA COASTLINE. GIVEN THAT WE ARE IN A
FULL MOON SPRING TIDE CYCLE TO START WITH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS
CONTINUE FOR THAT AREA. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE REST OF BUZZARDS
BAY...BLOCK ISLAND...AND THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SHORES OF
CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR THE MA EAST COAST
WITH THIS WIND DIRECTION. HOWEVER...SPLASH OVER IS POSSIBLE AROUND
THE TIME OF THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM
REVERE TO GLOUCESTER AND AT PROVINCETOWN HARBOR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BOSTON/S LOGAN AIRPORT HAS NOT FALLEN TO THE FREEZING MARK SO FAR
THIS SEASON. THE RECORD LATEST IN THE SEASON THAT BOSTON HAS
RECORDED ITS FIRST 32F WAS DEC 2ND 1975. THE LOW THIS MORNING AT
LOGAN WAS 35 DEGREES. AS OF THIS MORNING THE RECORD HAS BEEN TIED.
THE OVERNIGHT LOW TONIGHT IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...
THUS THE RECORD WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN. AVERAGE FIRST DATE OF 32 IN
BOSTON IS AROUND NOVEMBER 4TH.
RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES MAY BE SET ON THURSDAY. ALSO...SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY SET RECORDS. THE RECORDS AT OUR FOUR
CLIMATE SITES FOR THURSDAY DECEMBER 3 ARE AS FOLLOWS:
MAX T HIGH MIN PCPN
BOS...65 IN 1932 48 IN 1932 1.82 IN 1986
PVD...63 IN 1932 46 IN 1998* 3.38 IN 1986
BDL...64 IN 1932 43 IN 1932 1.60 IN 1967
ORH...61 IN 1932 47 IN 1998 1.69 IN 1986
*MEANS RECORD NOTED ALSO SET IN PREVIOUS YEARS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002>006-
008>012-026.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ022>024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ021>024.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
013>021.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ020.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR RIZ008.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250-
251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/NOCERA/EKSTER - UPDATED 755 AM
MARINE...WTB/DRAG/EKSTER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
