FXUS64 KOUN 052323
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
515 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009
.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAINING BRISK. SURFACE LOW OVER SE CO WILL DEVELOP
SEWD TOWARD NW OK AND MAY SEE SOME IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP NEAR THE
LOW AT KGAG/KWWR BY EARLY MORNING. LOW CLOUD DECK IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM N TX INTO CENTRAL OK IN PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW
SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS WHICH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH NW/WCNTRL OK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NEWD THROUGH KS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009/
.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD
TONIGHT... ALBEIT MODIFIED AS COLD SFC HIGH HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH
INTO THE GULF. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN AREAS MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 ON SUNDAY WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER WAA TAKES SHAPE.
FURTHER NORTH... MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A BIT OF A WINTRY MIX ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN OK SUN AFTN... BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANT.
COLD SFC RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH ON MONDAY AND TO WHAT DEGREE THIS COLD
AIRMASS HOLDS IN THE AREA FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUE WILL PLAY A
IMPORTANT ROLE IN WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP OCCURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK.
ALL THE MODELS CONT TO ERODE THE COLD AIR AS PRES FALLS TO OUR WEST
AID TO DEVELOP SFC LOW WHICH THEN PULLS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK TUE
EVENING. STILL APPEARS ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SOME VERY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA BEFORE WAA
CHANGES PRECIP TO PLAIN OLD RAIN BY LATE TUE MORNING.
GFS CONT TO SHOW SIGNS OF LARGE DRY PUNCH LIMITING PRECIP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST QUAD OF THE AREA ON TUE AND AS SYSTEM QUICKLY LIFTS EAST
AND NORTHEAST TUE EVENING MAY LIMIT POSSIBILITY OF WRAP-AROUND
WINTRY PRECIP AS WELL. HOWEVER AS COLD AIR PLUNGES SOUTH ON BACK
SIDE OF SFC LOW WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND
RAIN/SNOW INTO CENTRAL OK TUE EVENING BEFORE THINGS MOVE QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS AS MAIN IMPACTS LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND
SPEED OF SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIMIT POTENTIAL.
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A COLD DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS SKIES
CLEAR IN WAKE OF STORM SYSTEM. SOME WARMING EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS MAKING A
RUN AT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS JUST BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 31 47 27 42 / 0 10 10 10
HOBART OK 34 48 25 41 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 35 55 30 44 / 0 10 0 10
GAGE OK 26 33 12 35 / 0 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 31 41 22 38 / 0 20 10 10
DURANT OK 32 40 33 44 / 0 30 20 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/30
