FXUS64 KCRP 281020
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
420 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES ARE STILL ABOVE 10SM...LIGHT
SFC WINDS HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG OR GROUND FOG THIS MORNING. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A S/W SPIRALING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A
TRAILING S/W APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE. THE TRAILING S/W WILL
SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AND IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH NVA/SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE THIS AFTN. MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND THIS AFTN AS THE S/W MOVES THROUGH AND
INTERACTS WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO THE EXITING S/W. A SUBSIDENT LOW LVL FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT RESULTING IN ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES OVER MOST OF
THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK
ON TRACK FOR MORE RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND FOR THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. FRONT IS
STILL SCHEDULED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
AFTER FIRST PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
STRONG FRONT...AND WITH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG IT AND SOME WEAK
UPPER SUPPORT...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN INTO THE AREA.
THUS... GENERALLY WENT WITH OR ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR POPS AS MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE FROPA AND RAIN WITH IT. LOOKS LIKE
FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE...SO EXPECT ALL INLAND
AREAS WILL HAVE FROPA BY 14Z/8 AM. MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE
ACHIEVED BEFORE FROPA...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY IF NOT
FALLING DURING THE DAY. THUS...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE COOL...CLAMMY AND
BREEZY/WINDY... WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE MODELS ARE TRENDING THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...BUT NEVERTHELESS JET DYNAMICS AND STRONG Q/V CONVERGENCE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. COULD STILL BE SOME THUNDER IN THE
STRATIFORM RAIN...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LOW BEING A BIT FARTHER
NORTH THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A
MENTION OF THUNDER. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP IT IN FOR NOW AS THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH TIME FOR THIS TO BE REMOVED BY LATER SHIFTS. RAIN
TAPERS OFF TUESDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BE DRY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WILL SEE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON AS LONG AS THE
CLOUDS DO NOT LINGER...WITH PERHAPS SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
OVER LOW-LYING AREAS IN THE NORTHERN CWFA. GFS AND ECMWF NOW AGREE
ON HAVING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY. DID MENTION
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM (TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER)...WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE MOISTURE HAS TIME TO COME BACK.
ECMWF TRIES TO BRING ANOTHER BOUNDARY DOWN FRIDAY WITH GFS SHOWING A
WEAKER BOUNDARY...ALLOWING FOR MORE RAIN-PRODUCING FORCING. TROUGH
MOVES EAST FOR SATURDAY...THUS SO FAR NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS OK. PRETTY
MUCH WENT COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS GFSX-MOS
TENDS TO BE TOO WARM WITH THESE COLDER AIR MASSES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 64 81 55 58 / 10 10 20 70 90
VICTORIA 73 62 79 49 51 / 10 10 20 80 80
LAREDO 81 62 87 51 53 / 10 10 10 70 60
ALICE 78 62 85 53 55 / 10 10 10 70 80
ROCKPORT 75 66 78 55 58 / 10 10 20 70 90
COTULLA 79 61 80 49 51 / 10 10 20 70 60
KINGSVILLE 78 62 83 54 58 / 10 10 10 70 90
NAVY CORPUS 75 67 79 58 60 / 10 10 20 70 90
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JM/75...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM
