FXUS64 KMEG 070301
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
901 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009
.UPDATE...
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE IS STREAMING INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET MIXED WITH LIGHT
RAIN IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THESE AREAS HAVE
SINCE WET BULBED DOWN AND DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR THE FREEZING MARK AND
INCREASING. BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR SLEET IS ALL BUT GONE WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. INCREASED DEWPOINTS AREA WIDE TO ACCOUNT
FOR WET BULBING.
DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE RIVER HOWEVER ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
BELIEVE THAT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO WEST
TENNESSEE...SOME SLEET COULD MIX IN WITH LIGHT RAIN DUE TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE TOP DOWN.
SLEET SHOULD BE SHORT IN DURATION AND CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT GOOD WAA UP TO 900 MB WHICH SHOULD ALSO
INHIBIT ANY CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN. THEREFORE...DECIDED AGAINST
ANY HEADLINES ATTM. UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT.
CCD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009/
UPDATE...
SENT A QUICK UPDATED TO INCLUDE A RAIN/SLEET MIX ALONG AND NORTH
OF A FAIR OAKS ARKANSAS TO WARDELL MISSOURI LINE. RECEIVED REPORTS
OF LIGHT SLEET MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN IN POCAHONTAS ARKANSAS AROUND 00Z.
CCD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION CONCERNS DISCUSSED IN AVIATION SECTION. HIGHLIGHTS
TONIGHTS WEATHER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS. AS FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION TONIGHT SOME
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
SOME QUESTION INTO THE TIMING OF THE RAIN AND WHAT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE LIKE AT THAT TIME. WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL. WHILE SOME FREEZING
PRECIPITATION MAY FALL OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
IT APPEARS THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT IF AT ALL. NO ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE
UPDATED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...
RAIN WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A SHORT
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING MORE RAIN TO FORECAST AREA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN
OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS STORM SO THERE
MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. AT
THIS TIME...IT APP PEARS THAT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER SO WILL MAKE
CHANGES TO THE HWO AND REMOVE MENTION OF TORNADOES. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL END
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY
BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EARLY FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS AT SITES AND ACROSS AREA. VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO
STAY IN VFR CATEGORY. CLOUDS TONIGHT...CLOSER TO SUNRISE...MAY GO
TO MVFR CONDITIONS. ALSO PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...WITH AREAS NORTH
OF JONESBORO...JACKSON TENNESSEE...AND MEMPHIS HAVE A CHANCE FOR
SOME FREEZING RAIN...AT THIS TIME ONLY EXPECT RAIN AT TAF SITES.
TLSJR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 35 48 39 57 / 50 10 60 90
MKL 32 45 35 55 / 50 20 40 90
JBR 32 46 34 47 / 50 10 40 90
TUP 35 46 42 58 / 30 50 60 90
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
