FXUS65 KBYZ 260404
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
904 PM MST WED NOV 25 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
JUST SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS GUSTING A LITTLE MORE IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
UNDERESTIMATE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THUS PRODUCING STRONGER WINDS
THAN MODELS HAVE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO DECREASE THE
GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER THING OF CONCERN IS THE SOUNDINGS NOT
SHOWING VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND SO NOT SURE WE WILL HIT THE
ADVISORY CRITERIA OR NOT. WILL KEEP IT GOING AND SEE WHAT
HAPPENS. TEMPS ALSO VERY COLD OVER BY BAKER ALREADY AND HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS IN BAKER ESPECIALLY AS TEMPS THERE WERE ALREADY
BELOW THE FORECAST LOW. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS GOOD. UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY. SOLUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY MORNING WITH A SPLITTING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGEST Q-G FORCING
WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. BROAD
BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY. LINGERED POPS INTO EARLY SUNDAY
BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE REGION. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE
NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ADJUSTED POPS TO COVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES EARLY
TUESDAY. SPREAD POPS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES STAGNANT LEAVING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CONFINED
POPS TO LOCAL MOUNTAIN RANGES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN
RESPONSE. SCHUKNECHT
&&
.AVIATION...
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CONCERN TO AVIATION WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND THE KLVM VICINITY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...TO 25 TO 40
KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR FLIGHT CONDITION WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GILSTAD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035/060 032/054 028/039 025/039 021/050 024/040 023/031
00/N 00/B 32/J 20/B 00/B 22/J 11/B
LVM 034/057 034/050 022/034 017/037 023/046 024/037 020/029
00/N 02/W 32/J 21/B 11/N 33/J 11/B
HDN 029/061 030/056 025/042 020/042 020/051 021/044 020/034
00/U 00/B 22/W 21/B 00/B 12/W 11/B
MLS 025/060 029/054 027/042 019/041 018/048 020/040 021/036
00/U 00/B 22/W 21/B 01/B 12/J 11/B
4BQ 026/062 029/055 026/041 020/040 018/048 020/042 021/033
00/U 00/U 22/J 21/B 00/B 12/J 11/B
BHK 017/057 028/053 024/039 018/039 015/041 019/039 020/036
00/U 00/U 22/J 21/B 10/B 12/J 11/B
SHR 025/061 030/055 024/040 016/040 015/050 019/039 019/031
00/U 00/B 23/J 21/B 00/B 12/J 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM MST THURSDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
