FXUS63 KMKX 292057
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
257 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN A SMALL CLEARING IN SW WI AND NE IA...THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND WRN GRTLKS IS COVERED
WITH STRATUS. UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM LS TO NE NEBRASKA WILL MOVE
EAST OF WI AFT 06Z WITH A WK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO SHIFT INTO
WI. SOME CLEARING THEN EXPECTED WITH LGT WINDS SO WENT A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

FOR MON AFT AND MON EVENING A 140 KT JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SEWD FROM CANADA INTO THE NRN AND WRN
GRTLKS. PVA FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NE WI INTO MI
BUT A DECENT WARM ADVECTION PATTERN IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL
MOVE ACROSS SRN WI. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS
WEAK BUT ORGANIZED. FCST SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR SATURATION FOR A FEW
HOURS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THE NAM AND DRIER
MODELS AND FCST A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MON AFT WITH CHANCES
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. PCPN WILL PROBABLY BEGIN WITH A MIX
BUT EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL TAKE OVER SOON AFTER FOR ALL LGT SNOW.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO WI AFT 06Z
TUE...ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN MANITOBA CANADA ON TUE. SLY WINDS...WARM
ADVECTION...AND MO SUNNY SKIES SHOULD WARM TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. 

.LONG TERM...THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS HAVE REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THU BUT DIVERGE AFTERWARD. WILL STICK WITH THE ECMWF FOR
FRI AND THE WEEKEND WHICH SUPPORTS PREVIOUS FCSTS BASED ON A
LINGERING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

FOR TUE NT AND WED A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW WILL MOVE FROM SW ONTARIO CANADA TO QUEBEC CANADA WITH A COLD
AND DRY FROPA EXPECTED TUE NT WITH ANOTHER FOR WED AFT WHEN WINDS
TURN NWLY. TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE...A LARGE 516 DM THICKNESS
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO MN AND THE WRN GRTLKS WED NT AND THU AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH FRI. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IS FCST WITH THE COLD POCKET ALOFT FOR
THU AND FRI.

THE THICKNESS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST BY SAT AND LIFT NEWD INTO SERN
CANADA AFTERWARD. LIGHTER WNWLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL SAT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED FOR SUN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE FCST THU THROUGH
SAT. 

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN IS THE TREND IN STRATUS COVERAGE TONIGHT. 
PLENTY OF MVFR CEILINGS. MODEL RH PROGS/MOS AND MAV SUGGEST SOME 
BREAKUP AND IMPROVEMENT IN BASES TO VFR LEVELS. TRENDED THE TAFS IN 
THIS DIRECTION FOR NOW. SEEING SOME BREAKS IN WRN WI AND MORE OF A 
CELLULAR APPEARANCE TO CLOUD COVER IN NE WI. COMBO OF WEAK WARM 
ADVECTION AND TROUGH FOR MONDAY. LIGHT PRECIP NOT OUT OF THE 
QUESTION. INCREASED CLOUDS BUT KEPT AT VFR LEVELS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...UPSTREAM WIND SPEEDS AND 
ANTICIPATED SLOWLY LOOSENING GRADIENT WILL BACK OFF ON THE SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY AND GO FOR CONDITIONS JUST BELOW CRITERIA. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...20
AVIATION/MARINE...10