FXUS61 KCAR 260755
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
255 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL A WARM FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SHROUD THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY AGAIN TODAY. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE AROUND...MAINLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. AN OCCLUDING FRONT
APPROACHING TONIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTH LATE
TONIGHT AND SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER DOWNEAST AREAS AS
A BREEZE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THICKNESSES SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE FREEZING
ALONG SOUTHERN DOWNEAST AREAS. CENTRAL AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS WARMING MOVES IN ALOFT AND COLD AIR
REMAINS AT THE SURFACE. 
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAINING VERY CONSISTENT WITH WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. GFS AS USUAL FASTER WITH START OF PRECIP AND COLDER THAN
THE SLOWER AND WARMER NAM. HAVE DECIDED TO COMPROMISE AND USE A
BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR NOW. PRECIP WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY NOONTIME. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT ALL LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A WIDE
RANGE OF PRECIP TYPE. EXPECT PRECIP TO START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THEN TO ALL RAIN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME
SNOWFALL AND SLEET AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE NOT MORE THAN AN INCH WITH
FREEZING RAIN LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. EXPECT CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN OVER DOWNEAST BY MID MORNING, THEN ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS BY
MIDDAY AND THEN ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM HALF AN INCH TO JUST LESS THAN AN INCH
OVER NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND WASHINGTON COUNTY. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATING UP TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS ZONE 1 BEFORE
THE CHANGEOVER WITH BOTH NAM AND GEM INDICATING AROUND AN INCH.
AGAIN WILL COMPROMISE WITH AROUND 4 INCHES OVER NORTHWEST
SECTIONS. WITH SUCH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS,
GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE OVERDONE AS CHANGEOVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION.

LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 TO 50 KTS WILL NOSE ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GFS AND NAM BUFKIT INDICATES ONLY 35-40
KTS TO MIX DOWN SO AT THIS TIME WILL NOT PUT OUT HIGH WIND WATCH. 
BUT NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION VERY CLOSELY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP
ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS BUT MAINLY A DRY DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
USED THE GMOS FOR THE LONG TERM. STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION, EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO MAX OUT EARLY TUESDAY AND FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLD AND
WINDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THROUGH CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY RISE TO MVFR DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TODAY IN SOME SPOTS. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE ARCTIC
FRONT CROSSES THE STATE EARLY TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...REACHING
SCA LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF POSSIBLE GALE
FORCE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR 
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...FOSTER
LONG TERM...FOSTER
AVIATION...BLOOMER
MARINE...BLOOMER/FOSTER