FXUS65 KBYZ 291607
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 
907 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL WELL TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. THIS NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S TODAY
DESPITE GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPE WIND GRADIENT UP TO
700MB. LOWERED CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE JUST ABOUT MOVED OUT OF EASTERN AREAS...AND
WESTERN AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT SHORTLY. MAINLY THIN
CIRRUS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS PACIFIC
MOISTURE CRESTS THE RIDGE...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN
TODAY. WINDS WILL GET GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIVINGSTON ALREADY SUSTAINED OVER 20
MPH THIS MORNING. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BUT THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY AND BEYOND. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
AND THEREFORE HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE.
A STRONG DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY
BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE TO OUR NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
USHER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. MODELS DIVERGE
THURSDAY ONWARD AS THE GFS KEEPS A RIDGE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS PLACES A
LARGE TROUGH AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP RIDGING OVER THIS SAME
AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP GOING FORECAST ABOUT THE SAME DURING
THIS TIME AND USED A BLEND OF MODELS AS NO MODEL OF CHOICE IS
PREFERRED AT THIS TIME. HOOLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING...SITES NORTH OF THE BILLINGS CWA WERE
REPORTING FOG...BUT THE FOG HAS NOT MADE ITS WAY INTO ANY OF OUR
TERMINALS. EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VFR FLYING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
CONSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-30 KTS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF
THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS. SINGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050 030/052 031/040 020/031 018/039 020/039 020/032
    0/U 00/N    03/O    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
LVM 046 027/049 027/037 018/029 013/037 013/037 020/030
    0/N 00/N    24/S    21/B    11/N    11/B    11/B
HDN 051 027/055 029/043 018/033 017/041 018/041 017/035
    0/U 00/U    02/S    21/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 047 028/052 027/040 018/033 017/038 017/038 016/032
    0/U 00/U    02/S    11/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
4BQ 046 026/054 028/042 019/032 015/036 016/038 015/032
    0/U 00/U    02/S    22/J    21/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 043 026/051 026/039 015/031 010/034 011/034 010/030
    0/U 00/U    02/S    11/B    21/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 046 027/054 027/040 018/031 015/039 018/039 017/032
    0/U 00/U    03/S    22/J    11/B    11/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS