FXUS62 KMHX 120201
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
901 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MOVES ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE W WHILE
A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM JET SPREADING ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SE. MODELS SLOWLY THIN OUT AND SHIFT THE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE SEWD TONIGHT SO SOME CLEARING ESP NRN TIER OVRNGT.
WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND THIS EVENING WHICH WOULD NORMALLY ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT
MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. STILL WITH
A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS...TEMPS
EASILY FALL INTO THE 20S TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPS ALONG
THE COAST A BIT TRICKIER AS MIXING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT FURTHER LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. KEPT
LOWS IN THE L/M30S FOR OBX AS IT APPEARS A LIGHT WNW BREEZE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABV FREEZING.
ANY CLEARING SAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SRN STREAM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN
TO THICKEN AGAIN. THE SFC HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF THE NE
NC/SE VA COAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH FLOW BECOMING ELY ALLOWING
TEMP ADVECTION TO BECOME NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT WAA COASTAL SECTIONS
LATE AFTERNOON. FOLLOWED CONSISTENCY AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN
THE U40S TO AROUND 50 BUT IF CLOUDS ARE THICK ENOUGH MAX TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE A CATEGORY LOWER. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN KEEP
ANY PRECIP SW OF THE REGION UNTIL SAT EVENING WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY SOUNDINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SOUNDINGS QUICKLY MOISTEN SAT EVENING WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS S AND LIKELY FAR NE ZONES SAT NIGHT AND
CATEGORICAL ALL ZONES SUN. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THE EVENING THEN RISE LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
WAA INCREASES...ESPECIALLY COASTAL SECTIONS...AND USED A MOS
GUIDANCE BLEND TO BRING AN ATYPICAL TEMP CURVE. LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS ERN NC SUN THEN QUICKLY LIFTS NE OF THE VA CAPES SUN
EVENING. WILL SEE BLUSTERY SELY FLOW E OF THE LOW CENTER MOST OF
SUNDAY...BECOMING SWLY LATE SUN AFTERNOON THEN DECREASING WLY
WINDS SUN EVENING AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS ERN NC THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
MAINLY AFFECTING MAINLY COASTAL SECTIONS AND INNER BANKS COUNTIES.
TEMPS ALSO LIKELY REMAIN TRICKY SUN AS COASTAL SECTIONS COULD RISE
INTO THE L/M60S AND FAR INLAND SECTIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
M50S. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRI...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HPC HAS COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY TO HIGH CHANCE AS MODELS STILL
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE. FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS COOLING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ALONG THE COAST AND OUTER BANKS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH HIGH PRES OVER AREA.
LATEST STLT IMAGERYAND MODEL DATA INDICATES HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN
OVRNGT...THEN INCREASE AND THICKEN AGAIN EARLY SAT MORN.
OUTLOOK...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN WAA LATE SAT AS THE HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST. THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE WINDS AND BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE
REGION LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...MVFR LIKELY WITH SOME IFR PSBL.
VFR RETURNING WITH HIGH PRES MON. MVFR PSBL WITH SHRA LATE TUE AND
TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO AREA FROM W AND ANOTHER MINOR
CAA SURGE LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING BUT MODELS INDICATE CONDITIONS
REMAINING BELOW SCA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT AND SAT WITH HIGH CENTER BUILDING ACROSS AREA. NEXT
COASTAL LOW APPROACES FROM SW LATE SAT NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS SUN.
WENT MORE TOWARD GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH SINGLE LOW RATHER
THAN NAM12 DUAL LOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG SCA/PSBL GALES
SUN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH WEAKER HIGH
BUILDING IN. ANOTHER STRONG SCA/PSBL GALE EVENT LIKELY WITH NEXT
FRONT THAT IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS
LIKELY WITH POST-FRONT CAA WED WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING
IN.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...BTC/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/BTC
MARINE...JBM/BTC
