FXUS64 KTSA 242125
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
325 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF THIS STORM...AS DETERMINED BY
SATELLITE...RADAR AND PROFILER DATA...CONTINUES TO
TRACK NORTH OF MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT CENTERS.
THIS MID-LEVEL CENTER IS KEY PORTION OF THE STORM
TO TRACK AND BLENDING EXTRAPOLATIONS WITH MODEL DATA
TAKES THE CENTER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING AND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT 06Z
AND THEN NORTH TO CENTRAL MISSOURI AT 12Z. TAKING
THE SHORT-TERM TRENDS OF THE OBSERVED DATA AND FOLLOWING
THE TRACK ABOVE WE BELIEVE THAT A HEAVY SNOW BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. JUST WITHIN THE LAST 30 MINUTES LIGHTNING WAS
REPORTED WITH THE INCREASING SLEET AND SNOW IN WAGONER
AND TULSA COUNTIES. WE WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENT
TO THE SNOW FORECAST BASED ON THE MOST RECENT RADAR AND
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS
EXTENSIVE WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION...SO ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW. THE
HEAVIEST BAND WILL DEVELOP ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE
DRY SLOT AND MERGE WITH AN EXISTING BAND OF HEAVY SNOW
THAT HAS BEEN IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED...ITS LIKELY WE WILL
SEE A STRIPE OF 8 TO 10 INCH SNOW SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE BROAD ZONE
OF 5 TO 7 INCH AMOUNTS.
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH A NUMBER
OF GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON SO WE HAVE
ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE BLIZZARD WARNING IF THE WINDS EXPAND
ANY FURTHER EAST. THERE HAVE BEEN POWER OUTAGES REPORTED NOW
IN WAGONER AND SOUTHEAST TULSA COUNTIES FROM EITHER THE WIND
OR LIGHTNING.
THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING.
SOME FLURRIES COULD EVEN OCCUR NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI
BORDERS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE STORM SLOWS.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH WINTRY WEATHER AGAIN POSSIBLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 19 34 19 37 / 100 10 0 0
FSM 23 37 21 38 / 100 10 0 0
MLC 19 37 21 39 / 100 0 0 0
BVO 16 33 18 37 / 100 10 10 10
FYV 16 28 18 32 / 100 10 0 0
BYV 19 28 16 33 / 100 20 10 10
MKO 19 33 21 36 / 100 10 0 0
MIO 16 30 17 34 / 100 20 10 10
F10 20 36 21 37 / 100 10 0 0
HHW 20 38 21 41 / 90 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ069-
OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....08
