FXUS61 KAKQ 142109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
409 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH
COLDER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK HI PRES WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST TNGT...AND A COLD FRNT WILL
PUSH TO JUST W OF THE FCST AREA BY ARND DAYBREAK TUE. SOME
STUBBORN STRATUS STILL COVERING SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC LATE THIS
AFTN...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION ENJOYED A PRTLY OR MSTLY SNY
SKY. TEMPS WERE RANGING FM THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. ALTHO THE SKY
MAY BECOME MSTLY CLR OR PRTLY CLDY THIS EVENG...EXPECT STRATUS OR
LOW SC OR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO REDEVELOP ALL AREAS AFTR
MIDNGT...AS BOTH GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEAR SATURATED
LAYER BETWEEN SFC AND ARND 925 MB. MIN TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING TUE...WITH WEAK LO PRES
TRACKING THRU THE SE STATES AND OFF THE CST. MODELS ARE STILL
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING BULK OF DEEPER MOIST ASSOC WITH THE LO PRES
AREA PASSING BY S OF THE FA. SO...HAVE CONFINED SLGT OR SML CHC
FOR SHRAS OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC. LO LVL CAA WILL BE DELAYED ON
TUE...RESULTING IN A MILDER DAY (FOR MID DEC)...WITH HI TEMPS FM
THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S UNDR PRTLY SNY TO CLDY SKY. 

LLVL CAA ARRIVES IN ERNEST TUE NGT THRU WED...WITH A PERIOD OF
GUSTY NNW WNDS (LASTING SVRL HRS LNGR NEAR THE CST THAN INLAND)...
AND A CLR OR MSTLY CLR SKY. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPR 20S TO NEAR 40
TUE NGT...AND HI TEMPS ON WED IN THE LWR TO MID 40S.

THE CNTR OF THE SFC HI BLDS OVR THE REGION THRU THU...MAINTAINING
CHILLY/DRY WX. LOWS WED NGT RANGING THRU THE 20S TO NEAR 30...AND
MAX TEMPS ON THU RANGING THRU THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRS OVR THE NRN STATES KEEPS DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD CNDTNS
FRI & SAT. HIGHS 45-50. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NR 30. 

MODELS CONT TO DISAGREE WITH JUST HOW FAR N MSTR FROM YET ANTHR 
SRN STREAM GULF COAST LOW GETS. GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NRN STREAM 
DOMINATED WITH FIRST SYSTM SLIDING S OF RGN WITH A SCND LOW DVLPNG 
ALONG CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NITE AND SUN. ECMWF HAS A MUCH MORE 
AMPLIFIED SYSTM ALONG THE COAST WITH SCND S/W NRGY TRYING TO PHASE 
WITH FIRST ONE. HPC GUID FOLLOWS MORE OF A GFS TREND WITH CHC POPS 
SAT NITE/SUN ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. THIS SCENARIO WUD KEEP TMPS WRM 
ENUF TO SPRT A LIQUID EVENT ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS THIS WKEND M40S 
TO L50S SE. LOWS IN THE 30S TO L40S SE. WILL NOT STRAY FROM THESE
TRENDS UNTIL CONFIDENCE GETS A BIT HIGHER.       

COLDER AND DRYER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTM MON. HIGHS U30-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIGGEST WX CONCERN IS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...AN APPARENT RESULT OF
THE EXTREMELY WET GROUND LEFT OVR FROM THE LATEST RAINS AND LGT
WNDS DUE TO HI PRES OVR THE RGN. VISIBLE SATELITE IMAGERY SHOWING
PERSISTENT FOG/STRATUS OVR SE VA AND NE NC WITH LGT SE-S WNDS.
SEEMS LITTLE CHC THIS MIGHT DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BEFORE THE SUN
SETS AND WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS AGAIN FORMS ACROSS THE RGN DURING
THE EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND
BOUNDARY WNDS WILL TURN MORE SW THRU THE NIGHT. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT
HELP REDUCE THE MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BUT EXPECT LOW IFR
CLOUDS TO PREVAIL INTO LATE TUE AM. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
LTR TUE. IT APPEARS THAT PCPN CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR AREA...AND PSBL AFFECT ECG. THE FRONT
WILL USHER IN SOME GUSTY NNW WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF VFR CONDITIONS STARTING TUE
NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK. HI PRES WILL GENLY AFFECT THE AREA THU
THRU SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS IN SHORT TERM AS RETURN S-SW FLOW SETS UP AS HIGH PRS MOVES 
OFFSHORE. STRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND CDFRNT TUE NIGHT THRU WED AFTRN. 
WILL HOIST SCA'S FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS NW WNDS BECOME GUSTY UP TO 
30 KTS. WNDS DMNSH WED NITE WITH A GNRL N-NW FLOW AOB SCA LVLS THU
THRU FRI. HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE N SAT. WNDS TURN MORE N-NE AND 
BEGIN TO INCRS AS P-GRDNT INCRS BTWN THIS HIGH AND DVLPNG LOW OFF 
THE CAROLINA COAST BY SAT NITE. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS (FOR MINOR FLOODING) ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE APPOMATTOX RIVER BASIN (FARMVILLE...MATTOAX...AND MATOACA)...
AS WELL AS FRANKLIN...SEBRELL...AND LAWRENCEVILLE IN THE CHOWAN
BASIN. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLSAKQ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY 
     FOR ANZ630>633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...AKQ