FXUS65 KLKN 091156
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
356 AM PST WED DEC 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY
COLD...POSSIBLY BREAKING A FEW RECORDS. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE SHORT TERM. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE THE ISSUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A REPORT OF -27 DEGREES CAME IN AT 930 PM LAST EVENING
FROM SPRING CREEK. MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING SEEMS TO HAVE TAKEN
PLACE BETWEEN 8 PM AND 9 PM THEN STEADIED OUT. TEMPERATURES ARE
BEGINNING TO TAKE A PRE-DAWN PLUNGE NOW. SOME LOW TEMPERATURE
RECORDS WERE BROKEN THIS MORNING AND A FEW MORE COULD FALL OVER
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. THERE IS SOME FOG FORMING AROUND NORTHERN
NEVADA THIS MORNING...INCLUDING THE ELKO AREA AND THE FORECAST
ACCURATELY REPRESENTS THIS. DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE A MAJOR ISSUE
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE RELEASED INTO THE SURFACE LAYER YESTERDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED OUT OVER A SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER WILL
PROVIDE A CAP...KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES LOW. A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP PUMPING IN FRIGID AIR THROUGH TOMORROW AND
NORTHERN NEVADA WILL BE UNDER AN INVERSION FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES TODAY AND
TOMORROW WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN SINK TO WELL-
BELOW ZERO.

AS THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN MORE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MODERATE A BIT...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC AND INSOLATION WILL
BE LIMITED. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN OVER THE
WESTERN CWA FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM UNTIL FRIDAY AND THIS NEXT SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL STILL BE AT VALLEY
FLOORS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AFTER AN INITIAL BAND OF
OVERRUNNING PRECIP MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY...CENTRAL
NEVADA MAY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS NEXT
SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. AN ACTIVE WEATHER 
PATTERN IS ON TAP FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD COMMENCING THIS WEEKEND. 
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL 
TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM...AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE MOISTURE 
PLUME...HOWEVER THE GFS IS ROUGHLY 12 HRS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF 
BRINGING THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS STORM WILL BE A 
SIGNIFICANT QPF PRODUCER FOR THE CENTRAL NEVADA HIGHLANDS...AND WILL 
PREDOMINATELY BE A SNOW EVENT...EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF 
ACCUMULATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HUMBOLDT COUNTY...WHICH WILL 
SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL 
HOVERING AROUND 4000FT OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY. THIS MARITIME SYSTEM 
WILL MODERATE THE IMPACT OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT CURRENTLY HAS A 
VICE GRIP OVER THE GREAT BASIN...EXPECT HIGHER NIGHTLY LOWS. WEAK 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL NOSE ITS WAY BACK INTO THE SILVER STATE ON 
TUESDAY. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL GET KICKED OUT OF A 
VORTEX OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOVE INTO THE WEST... 
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THESE IMPULSES WILL 
IMPACT THE IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER AND NORTHWARD.
&&

.AVIATION...THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF FREEZING FOG IN SOME OF THE 
VALLEYS OF ELKO COUNTY. EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO FZ FOG NEAR 
THE ELKO AIRPORT IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS 
FOR TODAY.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/97/97