FXUS63 KJKL 111128
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
628 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BE SLIPPING TO OUR EAST TONIGHT WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNING. THIS WILL PROMOTE RIDGE/VALLEY LOW TEMP
DIFFERENCES. WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE 30S TODAY...THINK THAT MOST VALLEYS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP
TO 10-15 TONIGHT...WHILE RIDGES REMAIN NEAR 20.

A COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BRING PRECIP BACK TO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY IN OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES. COULD EVEN BE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE SW BY 00Z SUN...AND
WILL CARRY A 20 PERCENT POP. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD THEN OVERSPREAD THE
AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
FZRA OR PL AT THE ONSET IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES...
ESPECIALLY WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THIS. ANY FZRA OR PL SHOULD
BE BRIEF THOUGH...AS TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO SUNDAY...BUT END BY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
OUT TO THE EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN BOTH THE WRF AND GFS...AND
THE MOS FROM BOTH MODELS...SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALL 
DAY ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS SOCKED IN...THINK THAT MOS TEMPS ARE TOO 
WARM ON SUNDAY AND WILL UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDER GFS MOS SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

MODELS DIVERGE WITH SYSTEM IN THE EARLY MONDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. SYSTEM MONDAY INTO LATE TUESDAY HAS MORE POTENTIAL FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS ALL MODELS SHOW SOME ARCTIC AIR WORKING INTO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE MAIN ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM...LEAVING EASTERN KENTUCKY MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THE GFS WAS
STILL SHOWING A MORE NORTH AND EAST TRACK WHICH COULD IMPACT THE CWA
ON A LARGER SCALE. WITH SO MUCH DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS HAVE OPTED
FOR PERSISTENCE WITH THE FORECAST AND LEFT POPS IN THE MID CHANCE
RANGE AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS
WEDNESDAY...AREA FALLS UNDER COLDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED

FAIR SKIES AND VFR FOR THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WINDS 
WILL BE LIGHT AND WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY... BACKING A BIT TO THE 
SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MACZKO
AVIATION...ABE