FXUS64 KMEG 012109
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
309 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WERE SEASONABLY
COOL WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. RADAR AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE RAIN STILL WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
THE GULF COASTAL REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY THEN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD STAY EAST AND
SOUTH AS SURFACE LOW STAYS EAST OF FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED RETURN OF COLD AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM SO HAVE
REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
POLAR AIRMASS RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. CONCERN OVER THE
POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH MOISTURE FIELDS
AND HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION COULD FALL. ECMWF AND GFS ARE
NOW KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY...BUT KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SITUATION. AFTER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY...REST OF FORECAST PERIOD
CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK GIVING US THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.
BELLES
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT AND DROP TO MVFR LEVELS BEFORE
SUNRISE. LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT AND
SPREAD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ARS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 42 46 36 46 / 100 100 40 10
MKL 40 49 34 45 / 80 100 60 10
JBR 39 47 31 44 / 70 100 40 10
TUP 41 50 38 47 / 100 80 40 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
