FXUS64 KSHV 070226
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
826 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTH NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. THIS DUE IN PART TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK
INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS WHICH AS OF 02Z WAS IN THE VICINITY OF
NE TX INTO CENTRAL TX WITH THIS FEATURE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD.
LIGHT RAIN WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND THUS...SHOULD SEE
LIGHT RAIN COMING TO AN END LATER TONIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES. FOG WAS NOTED BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL SO HAVE UPDATED
BASED ON FCST POSITION OF THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH 12Z MON WHICH
WOULD PUT PATCHY FOG ACROSS ALL OF NE TX...EXTREME NW LA INTO SW
AR AND SE OK. CONCERNING POPS...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS... BUT STILL
KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING TO THE EAST WHILE CUTTING POPS BACK TO
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS HAVE JUST ABOUT BOTTOMED OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE EVEN SEEN TEMPS COME UP A DEGREE OR TWO DURING THE
LAST HOUR AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. FOR THAT REASON...MADE SOME
TEMP ADJUSTMENTS WITH ONLY A SMALL DROP FROM 02Z OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR
ATT...TO LHB...TO NEAR CRS...SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO NRN/CNTRL LA
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. CIGS/VSBYS WILL FALL TO IFR/LIFR BY 06Z ACROSS THE E
TX TERMINALS...BEFORE SPREADING E INTO N LA AFTER 09Z. DO NOT THINK
THAT THE IFR CIGS/FG WILL SPREAD MUCH FARTHER N THAN THE I-20
TERMINALS OF N LA...ALTHOUGH LOW MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP/PERSIST N OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MONDAY. WILL ALSO SEE
PERIODS OF -RA PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
06Z...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SE INTO SW AR/EXTREME
NE TX LATE...THUS DIMINISHING THE -RA FROM W TO E THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY...EXITING THE MLU TERMINAL BY 18Z. IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD S OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR...WITH CIGS RISING TO AOA 2KFT ACROSS SW AR/SE OK.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS STRONG OVERRUNNING COMMENCES
ALONG THE SE TX COAST INTO SRN LA MONDAY NIGHT IN VC OF THE SFC
TROUGH...RESULTING IN AREAS OF -RA REDEVELOPING ALONG THIS TROUGH
AND RAPIDLY SHIFTING N ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...WILL LIKELY PREVAIL
-RA FOR THE LFK TERMINAL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...WITH THE -SHRA POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE I-20 TERMINALS OF E TX/N LA AROUND 06Z. WILL ALSO
CONTEND WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FG AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AS WELL. SE
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NNE 5-10KTS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 45 56 47 60 47 / 60 20 70 60 50
MLU 46 55 46 60 50 / 70 50 60 80 70
DEQ 37 51 38 49 38 / 40 10 40 50 30
TXK 38 55 42 52 40 / 40 10 50 60 40
ELD 43 54 44 56 44 / 70 20 60 70 60
TYR 43 57 48 59 43 / 40 10 60 60 30
GGG 43 57 47 59 46 / 40 10 70 60 40
LFK 49 60 51 64 53 / 60 20 80 60 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13/15
