FXUS64 KEWX 021126
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
526 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OUT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY. HOWEVER
WRAP-AROUND LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SPRINKLES AND SLEET
PELLETS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS AT KAUS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 19Z WITH VFR/NO CIGS AFTER 23Z. VFR CIGS AOA 8K
FT WILL PREVAIL AT KSAT AND KSSF THRU 19Z...THRU 18Z AT KDRT. SFC
WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW IS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. HAVE GONE WITH SILENT 10 POPS AND WILL LET SHORT-TERM
FORECAST HANDLE THIS. MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT FOR TODAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES AS A SHORT-
WAVE DROPS DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS. ALTHOUGH A DECENT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS GOING FOR LESS THAN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT, HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE LOWS. THE SHORT-WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL COME BACK INTO THE
AREA ON SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL WINDS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK AND THE SHORT-WAVE IS INDICATED.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT,
BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, AND THEN END FRIDAY
EVENING. DUE TO ONGOING COLD ADVECTION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW EARLY, THEN ALL SNOW AS THE EVENT DEVELOPS.
CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO
DEVELOPING CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. FOR NOW, WILL
GO WITH UP TO 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, SOME MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING
UP TO 4 INCHES AND HPC IS INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF GREATER THAN
4 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR THE AUSTIN AREA.
LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND
POSSIBLY ISSUE AN ADVISORY. AFTER PASSAGE OF THE SHORT-WAVE,
CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR A
HARD FREEZE. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S IN THE HILLS AND 20S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. FREEZE
WARNINGS WILL HAVE TO BE ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THAT ESCAPED A FREEZE IN NOVEMBER. OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK, THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES, HOWEVER WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO TRAPPED COLD AIR AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. MOISTURE RETURNS AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT-WAVES
WILL CREATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 56 36 52 36 38 / - 0 - 20 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 35 55 36 38 / - 0 - 20 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 55 36 56 36 38 / - 0 - 20 70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 52 34 46 35 35 / 10 0 - 20 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 62 39 57 40 42 / 0 0 - 20 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 33 51 34 38 / 10 0 - 20 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 62 34 52 37 38 / 0 0 - 20 70
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 57 35 55 35 38 / - 0 - 20 70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 53 36 54 37 41 / 10 0 - 20 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 59 37 53 36 38 / 0 0 - 20 70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 59 37 56 38 39 / 0 0 - 20 70
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04/13
