FXUS63 KICT 252113
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS SURROUND PLEASANT
WEATHER THURSDAY-SATURDAY...RAIN/SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLDER WEATHER SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
TONIGHT:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF DECOUPLING ACROSS THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA PER THE NAM MODEL. GIVEN THIS AND THE
UNDERESTIMATION OF MIXING WITHIN THE PV ANOMALY BY THE
MODELS...HAVE LOWERED MINS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLACKEN AND WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST...AND UNDER 10 KTS BY LATER THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY:
TRANQUIL WEATHER ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS. MAY EVEN SEE A ROGUE 70 DEGREE READING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW
DEEP WE MIX OUT.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT:
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SURROUNDING THE
STRENGTH...TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF LATE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM.
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS...UKMET...ECMWF AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALL PROG A POSITIVELY TILTED...PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM.
CONSEQUENTLY...A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS NOT ANTICIPATED. GIVEN ITS
SLIGHTLY BETTER TRACK RECORD...SIDED WITH THE LATEST ECMWF OVER THE
GFS...ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE MID/UPPER
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THAT SAID...BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS
TIME APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY RAIN EAST
OF THE TURNPIKE WITH POTENTIALLY A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BRIEFLY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW
GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF THE TURNPIKE. MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED SINCE THE SYSTEM'S POSITIVE TILT SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED WESTWARD INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH STOUT NORTHERLY WINDS...MAKING FOR A
FAIRLY RAW DAY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF YOU
ARE TRAVELING SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THERE STILL REMAINS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. MINOR VARIATIONS IN THE STORM'S
STRENGTH/AMPLITUDE COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
MID/UPPER ENERGY IS NOW EXPECTED TO LAG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PROGRESSES RAPIDLY
EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THIS ENERGY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...SUNNY SKIES AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE BOTTOM COULD DROP OUT
TEMPERATURE-WISE LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...AS THE
ECMWF...GFS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO STRONGLY SUGGEST A
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN
CONUS...DRAGGING A CHILLY CANADIAN AIRMASS (ALBEIT MODIFIED)
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IS 7-9 DAYS
OUT STILL...SO STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS.
COX/ADK/HARDING
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS DRY SLOT IS A SIGN OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THIS AREA WHICH IS AIDING THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER
AND BETTER MIXING. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE KEPT SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
CNU TAF SITE IS STILL AROUND 10 KTS...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DEPART DURING THE NEXT HOUR AND
ALLOW FOR BETTER MIXING AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER BY 19Z OR SO.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS
BEGINNING AFTER SUNSET.
COX
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 26 54 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 23 55 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 26 53 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 26 52 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 27 54 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 23 56 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 23 56 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 23 53 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 23 54 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 30 51 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 27 49 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 28 48 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 27 50 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
