FXUS64 KFWD 081653 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1053 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009
.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE PERSIST ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT WILL LEAVE SOME POPS IN THROUGH AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. STILL SIDING WITH THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE WHICH
TAKES A LITTLE LONGER TO ERODE THE COLD AIR...SHOWING BREAKS LATE
IN THE DAY AND KEEPING THE HIGHEST WINDS OUT WEST.
91/DUNN
&&
.AVIATION...
MINOR AMENDMENTS TO TAFS TO EXTEND LIFR CONDITIONS TO 18Z BASED ON
GFS LAMP GUIDANCE. BELIEVE CIGS WILL LIFT GRADUALLY THEREAFTER TO
IFR AND EVENTUALLY MVFR BY 20-21Z. CIGS SHOULD BREAK BY 22-23Z
WITH SKC THEREAFTER. GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE STRONG SW
WINDS THIS EVENING...WHILE NAM/RUC GUIDANCE KEEPS BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLED WITH SW WINDS ONLY REACHING 15 KT. SINCE GFS IS
UNDERESTIMATING STRENGTH OF MORNING INVERSION...WILL SIDE WITH
NAM/RUC WIND SPEEDS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY CROSS WIND IMPACTS THIS
EVENING. COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE AROUND OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH STRONG N/NW WINDS. TR.92
&&
.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES FOR TODAY.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/
TODAYS FORECAST IS QUITE A CHALLENGE. A COLD AIR AIR MASS IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH.
THE TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR TODAY/S
TEMPERATURES...WEATHER AND THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 9 TO 13 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS
AND NAM GUIDANCE ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE COLDER
THAN THE GFS FORECAST BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE NAM ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THUS HAVE PLACED UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTHEAST...50S FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE SUN SHOULD BREAK OUT
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S.
WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE...WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH THIS MORNING
WILL LIKEWISE BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD. IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION IS CORRECT
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER
THAN OUR FORECAST.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A HARD
FREEZE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 51 31 41 22 48 / 30 10 5 5 5
WACO, TX 58 34 49 25 51 / 20 10 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 46 29 41 19 47 / 60 10 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 50 29 43 18 46 / 20 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 49 30 40 18 47 / 30 10 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 50 31 42 23 48 / 30 10 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 50 33 45 23 48 / 40 10 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 56 37 46 24 50 / 30 10 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 59 36 50 29 52 / 20 10 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
