FXUS63 KDMX 261138
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
538 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE CLEARING TRENDS WITH BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS 
ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE MO RIVER AT THE MOMENT.  LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW 
MIX IS STILL IN PROGRESS ACROSS SERN FORECAST AREA...BUT EXPECT THIS 
TO EXIT AREA BEFORE FORECAST BECOMES VALID AT 12Z.  NAM IS NOT 
HANDLING LOW CLOUD PROGRESSION WELL AT ALL WITH GFS LOW LEVEL RH 
MORE REALISTIC RIGHT NOW.  BACK EDGE IS CLOSE TO 80 PERCENT AND GFS 
BRINGS THIS LINE TO JUST EAST OF I35 BY 12Z AND WILL BE 
FOLLOWED...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY EXTRAPOLATION OF BACK EDGE 
ACROSS ND/MN.  NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT SUGGESTING HIGHS 
NEAR NAM MOS.  LOW LEVELS CURRENTLY MIXED...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO 
THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPING WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20S.  

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SYSTEM FOR LATE 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  UNTIL THEN...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE 
FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS 
THROUGH SATURDAY.  FOR THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A 
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH 
MID DAY MONDAY.  THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z EURO AND 
THE CANADIAN.  IT NO LONGER DEEPENS A CLOSED LOW OVER IA AND DROPS 
IT SOUTHEAST RATHER IT CONTINUES WITH THE IDEA OF A SPLIT FLOW 
REGIME.  MOISTURE REALLY DOES NOT IMPACT THE SYSTEM UNTIL IT PUSHES 
EAST OF THE CWA.  THUS I HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY 
NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH AS THINGS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN 
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS THE FORECAST WILL BE TWEAKED FOR TIMING AND 
MORE LIKELY...POPS.  TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS 
THIS SYSTEM PASSES.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
NEXT WEEK BUT OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THE MODELS ARE 
HINTING AT A BIG COOL DOWN LATER NEXT WEEK. 

&&

.AVIATION...
26/12Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS STILL EXIST THIS MORNING...MAINLY 
ALONG AND WEST OF MO RIVER VALLEY...WITH BACK EDGE STILL INTO ERN 
SD/WRN MN.  UNFORTUNATELY CIGS ARE STRADDLING 2KFT AMENDMENT 
CRITERIA MAKING FORECAST SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.  WILL AVOID TEMPOS 
AND JUST GO WITH MOST LIKELY CONDITIONS TO START.  WINDS WILL BE 
GUSTY...22KTS OR MORE...AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE 
DAY.   SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR FROM NW-SE 18Z-21Z FOLLOWED BY 
DIMINISHING WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BSS
LONG TERM...FAB