FXUS64 KLZK 221122 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
522 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009

.AVIATION...
TEMPORARY MARGINAL VFR VISBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LIT HRO AND BPK
THIS MORNING. INCREASING CU/STRATOCU WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH SCATTERED SHRA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. BY THE
EVENING...MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT...AND AFTER
06Z...IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN PREDOMINANT. TAFS OUT SHORTLY. 
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE STATE THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING...AND PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THESE WILL NOT
BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING.

SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND MORE MOISTURE TO 
THE STATE. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE DRY AIR ABOVE US TO 
MOISTEN...SO RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER CONSISTENCY THIS MORNING AMONG THEMSELVES. 
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES...AND THE EUROPEAN HAS SPED THE 
SYSTEM UP. HAVE CONTINUED A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT HAVE 
TRENDED WITH A MORE NORTHERN TRACK...SIMILAR TO THE EUROPEAN.

ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE STATE THIS EVENING...AS THE 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE DRY 
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN ELEVATED 
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

BY WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PANHANDLES REGION...WITH 
WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA IN THE WARM 
SECTOR...AND WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

STRONG JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE LARGE 
AREA OF RAINFALL...INSTABILITY WILL BE AN ISSUE. THINK THAT SEVERE 
WEATHER WILL BE MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF THE STATE...BUT CAN NOT RULE 
OUT DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 
DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WIND ENERGY...THINK A SQUALL LINE WILL 
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. HOW MUCH INSTABILITY/CAPE WILL BE 
AVAILABLE STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION...BUT WILL MENTION SEVERE 
WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. DEWPOINTS IN THE 
MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE ACROSS THE STATE...AND ALLOW FOR HEAVY 
RAINFALL TO DEVELOP. MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN 
WILL FALL...BUT HAVE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCHES AMOUNTS...WITH UP TO 5 
INCHES POSSIBLE. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AS WELL...ESPECIALLY 
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

DUE TO THE LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BREEZY WINDS 
WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND 
ADVISORY.

FINALLY...COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM THURSDAY AND 
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE STATE 
BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES...DO HAVE A RAIN SNOW MIX EARLY 
CHRISTMAS MORNING FOR AREAS FROM LITTLE ROCK AND NORTH...WITH A 
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW FOR AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. 
HOWEVER...ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE LIMITED TO FLURRIES OR VERY 
LIGHT SNOW...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. THE COLD AIR WILL 
REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
INITIALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT 
AND SATURDAY. UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON NORTHWEST FLOW 
ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
IT...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES AS IT PASSES. THE SURFACE 
HIGH WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH UPPER FLOW FLATTENING 
OUT. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE 
GULF BY DAY 7. ISENTROPIC UPLIFT WILL SEND MOISTURE UP INTO THE 
REGION...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. 

THROUGH THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL 
AVERAGES. 
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57