FXUS65 KPIH 062132
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
232 PM MST SUN DEC 6 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AS A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ARRIVED FROM CANADA. THE LOW IS NOW PARKED
NEAR THE CA/OR BORDER. IT SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT AREA TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM IS THAT THE WIND IS EXPECTED
TO STAY UP THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. COMBINED WITH THE COLD
TEMPS...EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -15 AND -25 TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A WIND
CHILL WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS TIME. 

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA...THROUGH NEVADA AND UTAH. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW...SO SHOULD ONLY SEE LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW OVER IDAHO WITH THE BETTER CHANCES STAYING NEAR
THE UTAH BORDER. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT OF 
AREA ON WEDNESDAY LEAVING COLD NORTHERLY FLOW.  HAVE SLIGHTLY 
REDUCED TEMPERATURES AND POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY 
THROUGH SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE OVERALL PATTERN WELL BUT 
ARE OFF IN TIMING AND INTENSITY.  THEY BOTH SHOW RIDGING ON FRIDAY 
INTO SATURDAY WITH A PACIFIC LOW MOVING IN OVER THE WEEKEND.  THE 
ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND WETTER. OVERALL...EXPECT COOLER THAN 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AN OVERALL DRY PATTERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  
LATER IN THE PERIOD EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE 
TEMPERATURES WITH A MOIST PATTERN. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE 
NORTHERLY WINDS. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS.  
EXPECT PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH THE LOW 
AND THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE TRACKING OVER NORTHERN UTAH.
WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MST MONDAY 
FOR IDZ017-019>021-023-025-031-032.

&&

$$