FXUS64 KFWD 221121 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
521 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF PACKAGE
MESSY TAF PERIOD IS UNDERWAY WITH MVFR STRATUS ALREADY IN PLACE AT
MOST TAF SITES. WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING OVER 10 KTS...THINK
CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL TEMPO IN THE
MORNING HOURS FOR OVC009 DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURNING
TO THE REGION. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING LATE THIS
MORNING WITH BKN030-035 THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL
LOWER BACK TO MVFR AS THE SUN SETS AND THEN IFR OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EAST
OF THE TERMINALS...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
HAVE INCLUDED A CB GROUP OVERNIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER
INCREASES WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009/
SKIES HAVE BECOME OVERCAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WELL
AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND MUCH COOLER
WEATHER TO THE REGION JUST AHEAD OF CHRISTMAS. LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH CONTINUED MOISTENING OF
THE LOWEST 5000FT EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING...SO SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS UPPER TROF DIGS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. AT LEAST ONE S/W EJECTS OUT OF THE BASE OF
THIS LOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS S/W AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED BY 55KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS TONIGHT. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH THE STRONGEST
CORES POSING A HAIL THREAT...BUT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
LOW 60S OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...A FEW OF
THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BECOME SURFACE BASED TOWARD MORNING.
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE...TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE
ENHANCED WITH THESE STORMS. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
SURFACE CYCLONE TAKING SHAPE AND DEEPENING ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. ISENTROPIC ASCENT/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND INTO NORTH TEXAS WITH TUESDAY NIGHTS
REMNANT ACTIVITY TRANSITIONING TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE...SURFACE DRYLINE ADVANCES INTO THE WESTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A
SQUALL LINE AND MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
WED/WED EVENING...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES GENERALLY EAST OF I-35.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO BE HIGHEST EAST OF I-35.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS. WILL
HANG ON TO SOME 20 POPS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT MOISTURE RAPIDLY MOVES
EAST. WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 40S ON THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
TO GO BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 68 59 73 44 44 / 10 60 60 70 20
WACO, TX 70 60 74 46 51 / 10 50 50 70 10
PARIS, TX 61 56 67 45 48 / 20 80 90 90 30
DENTON, TX 66 57 70 41 43 / 10 50 60 70 20
MCKINNEY, TX 65 58 70 44 44 / 10 70 70 80 20
DALLAS, TX 67 59 72 44 45 / 10 70 60 70 20
TERRELL, TX 66 59 70 47 47 / 20 80 80 80 20
CORSICANA, TX 67 60 71 48 50 / 20 60 80 80 20
TEMPLE, TX 71 60 72 47 54 / 10 50 50 70 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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