FXUS63 KICT 151724
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1124 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009
.UPDATE...
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
DOMINATING HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER
NIGHT. INITIALLY THE WINDS WILL BE CALM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER...A SWING TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WILL BE
NOTED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS IN CENTRAL
KANSAS SHOULD REMAIN IN CHECK THOUGH AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION IN CENTRAL KANSAS WILL PRODUCE SOME SLIGHT WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. THIS SCENARIO MAY ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING OVER THOSE LOCATIONS IN WHICH SNOW COVER REMAINS. AT
THIS TIME...THE CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT IS PRETTY LOW DUE TO
THE WIND SPEEDS. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SITUATION FOR
POSSIBLE UPDATES THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
$$
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND CIRRUS IN
SOUTHEAST KS AT THE ONSET...WITH INCREASE IN CIRRUS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KS. REGARDLESS... NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR
WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS OVER
EASTERN HALF...AND WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WEST DURING
THE NIGHT. -HOWERTON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...THEN FOCUS ON SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY WITH NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM.
TDY-TONIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE TODAY BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...AS POLAR AIRMASS MODIFIES SLOWLY EVEN WITH THE STAR SHINING
BRIGHTLY ALL DAY.
WED-THU
A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS PERIOD AS WARMER AIR FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FINALLY MIGRATES NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE REGION.
EXTENDED: FRI-MON
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
WESTERN STATES FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE
MORE POLAR AIR SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A DEEPENING
TREND FOR THIS WAVE...AND IF THE TREND HOLDS THEN A BOOST IN SNOW
CHANCES WILL BE FORTHCOMING WITH LATER UPDATES.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 28 18 45 24 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 26 16 45 23 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 26 16 44 25 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 28 16 45 23 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 31 17 47 28 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 19 10 37 19 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 22 13 41 18 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 20 12 37 20 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 23 15 42 23 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 31 17 48 29 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 28 16 45 30 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 27 16 45 27 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 29 17 47 30 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
