FXUS65 KBYZ 011603
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
903 AM MST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS...WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND FROM THE NORTH AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN.
SOME SLIPPERY ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED THIS MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS/SNOW TO ACCOUNT FOR DIMINISH TREND FROM THE NORTH...BUT WILL
KEEP ADVISORIES GOING AS IS FOR THE SOUTH WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ENHANCE THINGS FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
LONG RANGE MODEL DETAILS ARE IN BETTER SYNC TONIGHT WITH THE
FORECAST JUST PLAIN COLD AND MAINLY DRY WITH LITTLE MODERATION
EXPECTED. THURSDAY REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AND HAVE PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE
MID 20S. SOME MOISTURE MAY BE STREAMING OVER A RIDGE IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SO HAVE SOME MOUNTAIN PRECIP MENTIONED BUT NOT
REAL IMPRESSIVE LOOKING. BOTH MODELS PROG A BIT OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOR FRIDAY BUT NOT THE SUPPORT FOR LEESIDE TROUGHING THAT
THEY ONCE DID SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES. WAVE THAT MOVES INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT SEEN BY BOTH EXTENDED MODELS WITH THE WAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND
ELONGATE THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT A
PARTICULARLY GOOD PATTERN FOR SNOWFALL FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
PERSPECTIVE BUT WILL DEFINITELY BE UPSLOPISH SO FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SNOW. REAL STORY WILL
BE TEMPERATURES AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW -15C FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A REINFORCING SHOT WILL BRING IN EVEN COLDER
AIR. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF 20 OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES.
COLD AIR LOOKS TO STICK AROUND UNTIL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY ON TUESDAY WITH SOME LEESIDE TROFFING DEVELOPING. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE CWA AS THE MORNING CONTINUES. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KBIL TO KLVM.
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AS THIS BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST BEHIND THIS BAND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVRF CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP MAINLY OVER EASTERN
ZONES...INCLUDING KMLS...WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCHUKNECHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034 015/024 009/025 014/034 018/026 012/019 006/013
5/J 00/B 11/B 11/B 01/B 22/J 11/B
LVM 032 005/022 003/024 012/033 015/026 004/015 003/013
9/S 00/B 11/N 11/B 12/J 22/J 22/S
HDN 035 016/026 011/026 012/032 017/025 012/020 005/016
6/S 12/J 11/B 11/B 11/B 22/J 11/B
MLS 032 013/024 008/023 009/032 016/025 011/017 003/011
2/J 22/J 21/B 11/B 11/B 12/J 11/B
4BQ 033 016/024 010/021 011/032 012/025 005/019 003/016
2/J 23/J 22/B 11/B 11/B 12/J 11/B
BHK 031 014/023 005/020 008/028 010/026 006/018 001/014
2/J 23/J 21/B 11/B 11/B 12/J 11/B
SHR 031 013/023 006/023 012/036 020/027 009/016 008/015
+/S 22/J 21/B 11/B 11/B 22/J 22/S
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 34-39-41-56-64>66.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 38.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
