FXUS61 KCAR 021851
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
151 PM EST WED DEC 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TRACK 
ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS 
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL TEMPS MAY
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF SLEET...SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN TO 
MIX IN AT THE START OVER THE FAR NORTH. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ON THURSDAY. STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY WHERE
WINDS MAY GUST TO 50 MPH DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS ON THURSDAY. TIDES
ARE NEAR THEIR ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHEST LEVELS FOR THE MONTH SO WILL
BE ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR HIGH TIDE...WHICH OCCURS
AROUND 11 AM THURSDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY COME
IN BEHIND THE LOW TO BRIEFLY CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...RAIN WILL END THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR COMES IN ON GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AWAY FROM THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW OR
RAIN SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING OTHERWISE EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE INTO FRIDAY WITH
MAYBE SOME SCT FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE
SATURDAY NIGHT HAS BEEN TRENDING FURTHER OUT TO SEA AS NEW MODEL
DATA COMES IN. THEREFORE...WILL BACK OFF A BIT ON POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING LOW
PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANY COLD AIR SC THAT
LINGERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE HIGH RIDGES IN ON MONDAY. A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO DISRUPT THE PATTERN LATE DAY
TUESDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH IT SO
WILL KEEP ANY POPS TO A MINIMUM.

THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM PROGGED TO
PASS OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE THUR DAY. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MOST ZONES FOR NOW...AS THERE IS AT LEAST SOME AGREEMENT
THAT THIS WILL BE A STRATIFORM EVENT. BASED ON THICKNESS
THEORY...THIS APPEARS TO BE A SNOW EVENT PRIMARILY FOR MOST
ZONES...SO WILL USE THIS FOR WEATHER. WILL INITIATE GRIDS WITH
GMOS AND ADJUST POPS DOWN DURING RIDGING PRIMARILY. 
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LOWER TO IFR THEN FINALLY
LIFR...DOWNEAST A COUPLE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS THE
NORTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE IN THE 
DAY DOWNEAST AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN. SOME LINGERING MVFR IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY FOR STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 12 FT ON THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOA SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...BLOOMER
MARINE...BLOOMER/DUDA