FXUS64 KTSA 260828
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
228 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FASCINATING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING...WITH AT LEAST 3
IDENTIFIABLE CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE MASSIVE WINTER CYCLONE
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE LOWER 48. WHILE THE PRIMARY (AND DEEPEST)
CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY ACROSS IL...THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER
CIRCULATION THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SNOWFALL HAS COMPLETELY
WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER...AND IS CURRENTLY DIVING S ACROSS
NEBRASKA. CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN AN OVERALL CHILLY WEATHER PATTERN IN OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
CURRENTLY...WSWLY SFC WINDS ARE STAYING BREEZY TONIGHT...ALONG THE
SRN EDGE OF IA SFC LOW. LOW/MID CLOUDS ARE COVERING MUCH OF KS AND
MO AT THIS TIME...AND SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WORK INTO AT
LEAST THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS KS PER RADAR IMAGERY/SFC OBS...AND WILL INCLUDE
A MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR PARTS OF FAR NERN OK FOR TODAY. MET
GUIDANCE WAS OUTSTANDING WITH YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPS...AND WILL STAY
QUITE CLOSE TO IT FOR TODAY.
CHILLY WEATHER AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN THE SRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW. 00Z
GFS/ECMWF IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM...WITH
PRECIP CHANCES RAMPING UP AGAIN FOR LATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINTRY PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY FOR NE
OK/NW AR. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES BY LATE NEXT WEEK. 00Z MEX IS
TRENDING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT ITS
HIGH TEMP GUIDANCE NEW YEARS DAY AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 32 20 32 19 / 10 10 10 0
FSM 35 24 35 24 / 10 10 10 0
MLC 38 21 36 21 / 0 10 10 0
BVO 30 15 30 15 / 10 10 10 0
FYV 30 20 29 17 / 10 10 10 0
BYV 29 21 28 18 / 10 10 10 0
MKO 33 20 32 20 / 10 10 10 0
MIO 27 17 26 15 / 10 10 10 0
F10 34 18 33 21 / 10 10 10 0
HHW 43 25 41 25 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....18
