FXUS61 KGYX 261510
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1010 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY
EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON MONDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OUT TO SEA WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATCHING PROGRESS OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS APPROACHING THE COASTLINE
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THIS BAND
SHOULD REACH THE COAST BY NOONTIME. COASTAL FRONT SETTING UP
ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL...WHICH WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION. THIS FEATURE IS BEING PICKED UP BY THE ALBANY WRF.
HAVE UPPED POPS ALONG THE COAST...AND HAVE ADDED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE...VERY
LIGHT SNOW AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE ADVISORY AREA OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
AM CONCERNED ABOUT ICING POTENTIAL WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM FOR
TONIGHT AND AM CONSIDERING NEW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
WILL SEE A GRADUAL CHANGE TO RAIN IN SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TONIGHT AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM BUT LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THAT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BASED ON MODEL QPF...BUT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTH AND EAST FOR INTERIOR
SECTIONS. ALONG THE COAST INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL HAVE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON SO SEE
LITTLE IMPACT AT THIS POINT FOR THE SECOND PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RN...F AND SOME GUSTY SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO CANADA WITH TRAILING
FRONTAL SYSTEM OCCLUDING AS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES FORMS ALONG IT.
THIS FNT CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. CD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT
SHUTTING OFF STEADY PRCP WITH SHSN TO FOLLOW IT...MAINLY OVER MORE
NRN AND MT AREAS. A WEAK SFC LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES OFF THE
COAST ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPR LVL SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NE. THIS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SN WITH SOME
LGT ACCUMULATION PSBL.
A STRONG ARCTIC CD FNT MOVES THRU LATE MONDAY NGT WITH SHSN PSBL.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS FOLLOW THE FNT TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NGT WITH SOME SHSN STILL PSBL...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE MT
REGIONS. CD HIGH PRES BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY NGT THRU WEDNESDAY NGT
WITH FAIR BUT CD WX. LOW PRES MOVES NE OFF THE SE COAST THURSDAY
THRU FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK THE FCST AREA COULD SEE PRCP,
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SN, FROM THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH CURRENT TRENDS
SHOW IT JUST TO FAR TO THE SE TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR WX.
HOWEVER, A DEVELOPING BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT
LEAST SOME LGT PRCP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -SN, AROUND THE REGION
THURSDAY NGT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...IFR TO LIFR IN RN AND F
SUNDAY WITH RAIN...WARM TEMPS AND DEW POINTS OVER SN COVER. WEAK
LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WHICH COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR IN SN TO THE AREA. ARCTIC CD FNT
MOVES THRU LATE MONDAY NGT BRINGING SHSN AND PSBL MVFR OR MAYBE
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THIS FNT FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NGT ALONG WITH MT SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA'S FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WILL PUT UP A GALE WATCH
FOR SUNDAY. STRONG SE FLOW AHEAD OF LOW AND TRAILING OCCLUDED
FRONT HAS LOW LVL JET OF 35-40 KTS DOWN TO 1000 FT WHICH SHOULD
MIX DOWN AS FREQUENT GUSTS OVER THE WATERS. THE GALE FORCE WINDS
MAY ARRIVE OVER THE SRN MOST WATERS LATE TNGT THEN SPREAD TO THE
NE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW WON'T COMPLICATE HEADLINES
AND JUST KEEP AS ONE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE WATERS FOR SUNDAY.
PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 6 TO 9 HOURS PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND TIMING OF FNT. MOS WIND FCST FROM GFS AND NAM ALSO
SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS AS DOES OFFSHORE WATERS DISCUSSION.
ANOTHER GALE EVENT LIKELY TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AND CONT INTO
TUESDAY NGT IN VERY COLD NW FLOW BEHIND ARCTIC FNT WITH TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT SETTING UP.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ005-
007>010-013-014.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ150>154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
JC
