FXUS64 KAMA 251952
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
152 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO MO BY TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES TONIGHT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AT THIS TIME. THIS UPPER
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE PANHANDLES INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
MOVING EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES
PLACE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP UNTIL ABOUT THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME FRAME.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE MID
WEEK SYSTEM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A FAIRLY DRY AND
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES
AND ALSO WELL TO THE NORTH. IF THE GFS IS TO BE BELIEVED...IT IS
DOUBTFUL THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ANY PRECIP DURING THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIODS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF LIFTS THE MAIN
ENERGY OUT OF MEXICO NORTHEAST AND ACROSS WEST TX BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS ANOTHER PIECE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS INDICATING PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THE PANHANDLES FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINITIES OF THE MODELS...DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
POPS ALONE FOR TUESDAY FOR NOW AS THE MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB OF
HANDLING UPPER SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE WESTERN STATES SO FAR. A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND UNTIL NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 12 37 15 38 18 / 0 0 0 5 0
BEAVER OK 16 35 17 36 17 / 0 0 0 5 0
BOISE CITY OK 9 34 15 35 15 / 0 0 0 5 0
BORGER TX 16 37 19 40 20 / 0 0 0 5 0
BOYS RANCH TX 12 41 15 39 15 / 0 0 0 5 0
CANYON TX 8 39 12 40 15 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 15 38 18 41 21 / 0 0 0 5 5
DALHART TX 9 38 13 37 14 / 0 0 0 5 0
GUYMON OK 14 36 18 37 16 / 0 0 0 5 0
HEREFORD TX 11 39 14 38 10 / 0 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 15 36 19 38 18 / 0 0 0 5 0
PAMPA TX 13 33 16 37 18 / 0 0 0 5 0
SHAMROCK TX 16 39 19 43 19 / 0 0 0 5 0
WELLINGTON TX 19 40 19 42 21 / 0 0 0 5 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
02/11
