FXAK68 PAFC 281401
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS BETWEEN EASTERN RUSSIA AND CENTRAL AK
THIS MORNING...WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK. UPPER
RIDGES ARE NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND OVER NORTHWEST CANADA AND
SOUTHEAST AK. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND ANOTHER LOW IS APPROACHING THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.  

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS. THE LOW
SOUTH OF KODIAK MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND THEN WEAKENS
AS IT MOVES INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY SUN AFTERNOON. IT THEN
DISSIPATES IN THAT AREA SUN NIGHT. THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
FRONT REACHES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS SUN AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE FRONT REACHES KODIAK ISLAND SUN NIGHT AND
SETS UP ONSHORE SOUTH FLOW INTO THE REST OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
ON MON. THE LOW ITSELF WEAKENS AND SPINS AROUND THE EASTERN BERING
UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND THU AFTERNOON. FORECASTS
ARE A BLEND OF NAM IN THE SHORT TERM FOR DETAIL...THEN A BLEND OF EC
AND GFS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE LEANING TOWARD THE EC
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS. 

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...THE LOW AND FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN BERING WILL
BRING SOUTHEAST STORM FORCE WINDS AND SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY...TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUN. BY THIS TIME NORTHWEST STORM FORCE WINDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING. AS THE LOW STALLS AND
THEN PINWHEELS AROUND THE EASTERN BERING...RAIN WILL SLOWLY SWITCH
BACK TO SNOW TUE THROUGH WED.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...A BUILDING RIDGE WILL END MOST PRECIPITATION TODAY
AND KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WESTERN BERING LOW WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON. THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED AS THE LOW STALLS
OVER THE EASTERN BERING.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...THE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GULF WILL KEEP RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WITH SNOW
CROSSING THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THAT POINT THE LOW
MOVING INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL CAUSE SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO
CROSS THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OF SNOW LIMITED TO AREAS SURROUNDING THE SOUND. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH SUN NIGHT AND MON AND THEN THE FRONT FROM THE BERING WILL
BRING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE NORTH GULF COAST MON THROUGH WED.
SOME OF THIS WILL CROSS THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

COLD AIR WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO THE
BERING...ALEUTIANS...AND SOUTHWEST AK. SOUTHEAST OF THE ALASKA WILL
HAVE DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS ONSHORE
FLOW ENDS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORMS 120 130 132 155 165 170 172 175 176 179
         GALES 125 138 140 150 160 171 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...130 140 160 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS NOV 09