FXUS64 KMEG 030213
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
813 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009
.UPDATE...
REMOVED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND ADDED AREAS OF DRIZZLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND COLDER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH AND
FORECAST AREA.
AT 8 PM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE OCCURRING. A
SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SW OHIO WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH
FROM THE LOW TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
REST OF TONIGHT...STEADY RAIN HAS ENDED AS DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PUSHED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
THUS...REMOVED RAIN CHANCES. ADDED AREAS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
LIGHT DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...MOST OF WHICH WILL BE UNDETECTABLE
BY LOCAL RADARS AS DEPTH OF LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED BELOW 9000 FT MSL. WITH DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEWPOINTS
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...THINK MOST...IF NOT ALL...DRIZZLE
WILL END BY MIDNIGHT. NO SNOWFLAKES ARE EXPECTED WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE IN -10C SNOW GROWTH REGION AS LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
9000 FT MSL OR LOWER...GENERALLY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN -5C...WHICH IS TOO WARM FOR ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION.
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO BE ON TRACK TONIGHT. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER TOWARDS
DAWN...BUT OVERALL...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. FORECAST
LOWS IN THE 30S CAN BE EXPECTED.
WILL PROBABLY UPDATE AGAIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING INTO KY WHILE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
IS IN ERN AR. STEADY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS NE AR/SE MO WHILE
BROKEN AREAS OF RAIN OCCUR ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOW TO TRACK WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING
CAUSING THE RAIN TO END. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH A COOL NORTHWEST WIND.
A HIGH WELL TO THE NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LOW
IN THE GULF MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE
CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A DUSTING OR LESS.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY WITH SATURDAY BEING COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPS
IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. THERE WAS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO TO KEEP THE CHANCES OF RAIN
LESS THAN 50 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.
SWC
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CIGS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO MVFR LEVELS AT ALL SITES BY 03Z-04Z AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS SLOWLY EXIT THE
MIDSOUTH. VFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN BY 13Z-16Z BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN
OVC THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A 900 MB INVERSION. KJBR
COULD SEE CLOUDS GO BKN TO SCT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT
LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND REMAIN NORTHWEST AT 6-9 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
CCD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 36 46 31 43 / 10 0 0 10
MKL 37 46 26 41 / 10 0 0 10
JBR 33 43 27 41 / 10 0 0 10
TUP 38 48 31 44 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
